Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Quieter weather in the U.S. but not for all wet locations, recent wet weather in western Europe, and heat and dryness in the Black Sea, are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

RAIN, THEN QUIETER FOR MIDWEST

Scattered showers went through the Midwest over the weekend, including some areas of heavy rain. A system moving through Monday and another moving through Tuesday and Wednesday will bring more scattered showers. Cooler and drier weather should follow, though an upper-level low may continue showers around the Great Lakes into the weekend. Those with planting left to do will find some more difficult conditions, though some drier weather later this week should be helpful. Soil moisture remains high in many areas for early growth.

RAIN CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IN QUIETER PATTERN

The pattern stayed active in the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through a lot of the area, including over the southwestern drought areas. A couple of fronts moving through will bring additional showers through Tuesday before a brief break develops. A stalled front means that showers and thunderstorms likely return on Friday with potential continuing into early next week. Though some areas of flooding have and will continue to develop, and those left to plant may have some difficult conditions, the rainfall is good for the early growth of crops.

ONE MORE SYSTEM FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system brought scattered showers through the Northern Plains this weekend. Another will move through Monday and Tuesday with more showers. Drier weather is expected afterward for the rest of the week, though we may see some showers over southern areas this weekend. Another system moves through early next week. Though the pattern is turning less conducive for precipitation, it still seems some rainfall will be passing through some areas over the next week. Temperatures will generally be mild to cool, but not cold enough for frosts.

MORE RAIN FORECAST FOR DELTA

Scattered showers and heavy rain moved through the Delta over the weekend and chances for more continue through Wednesday. Drier conditions should develop afterward, though a stalled front could produce more rainfall this weekend into early next week.

ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Isolated to scattered showers went through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend and another system moving through Monday and Tuesday should bring more widespread rainfall. Northern and eastern areas may see showers continuing, but drier conditions are likely through the weekend. But another system will move through early next week. Recent showers may not have been enough to delay the rest of planting, but may have been an annoyance for those doing work. Soil moisture is much improved and early growth should find mostly good conditions.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR BRAZIL

Drier weather in Brazil over the weekend allowed flooding in the south to recede while it was unfavorable for safrinha corn areas that are heading more toward maturity. A front will bring isolated showers to the far south on Monday, but dry weather should continue thereafter.

MOSTLY DRY IN ARGENTINA

Dry conditions in Argentina have continued to favor corn and soybean harvest, but not winter wheat planting and establishment. A front brought limited showers through the region over the weekend, but most areas have stayed dry. Another couple of fronts could produce showers over southern areas later this week and weekend but generally look light, still unfavorable for wheat.

UPPER-LEVEL LOW, FRONT CONTINUED SHOWERS IN EUROPE

Scattered showers continued over much of central Europe over the weekend due to an upper-level low. The low will drift eastward early this week but another front will push through the continent and settle west-east from northern Spain to western Ukraine, a zone which will see scattered showers continuing. Some of these areas will welcome the rain while others will not. Heat south of the front may be stressful for those that are drier.

HOT AND MOSTLY DRY IN BLACK SEA

Some isolated showers developed over eastern areas of the Black Sea region over the weekend, which was helpful in some areas, but was overall pretty light. A front will move into northwestern areas and stall this week, bringing favorable showers through. Most wheat areas will stay unfavorably dry going into the weekend, though. Instead, heat continues to build throughout much of the region, producing stress for both winter and summer crops that are struggling in many areas.

MORE FREQUENT FRONTS FOR AUSTRALIA

Showers continued in eastern Australia late last week and more came through western areas over the weekend, both being favorable for winter wheat and canola establishment. The western system will bring some rainfall to eastern areas through midweek and another front looks like it'll go through western areas late week with another over the weekend. With the switch to La Nina continuing to develop, the prospect for rainfall should continue to increase over the next few months, very favorable for crop establishment and development.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.