Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued heavy rain, flooding, and severe weather in the U.S. into next week, but quieter weather coming up, wet weather in western Europe, and heat and dryness in the Black Sea are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HEADED FOR MIDWEST

Another system's front has moved into the western Midwest for Friday and a system forming along it will move through this weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Another system goes through early next week and a final one midweek will send a front through the region that will usher in cooler temperatures by the end of the week. Areas of heavy rain will occur through the middle of next week. That system will likely hover around the Great Lakes with some lighter showers for the rest of the week, an annoyance for those yet to plant and yet another obstacle for planting or needing to replant this year.

DAILY RAIN CHANCES FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and severe weather have been frequent in the Central and Southern Plains lately. Another front will slowly pivot around the area through the weekend and last into next week with more. Every day should feature rain in some portion of the region through next week, which is a good prospect for getting some precipitation into drier parts of the region in the southwest but could cause storm damage or flooding in some others. Wheat areas probably won't be able to take much advantage of the rain, but it should help with soil moisture for summer crops.

TWO MORE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

A system brought scattered showers through the Northern Plains over the last couple of days. A couple of systems moving through will bring additional isolated showers into early next week. Any heavy amounts are likely to be isolated, with more light to moderate rainfall across the region, which should leave enough holes for producers to continue planting while giving new seedlings some rainfall to continue growing. Cooler temperatures will filter back into the eastern half of the region later next week.

MORE RAIN FORECAST FOR DELTA

Additional fronts and systems will be close to the Delta region through next week, which gives at least northern areas more chances for rain. Southern areas may find that as well. Although some flooding potential is possible, the rain is overall favorable for developing crops.

WET AND COOL FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

The storm track near and through the Canadian Prairies will bring two additional systems through, one across the south on Sunday and another through much of the region Monday and Tuesday. Showers may linger over eastern areas for a few more days afterward as well. It should get drier afterward but that second system will also usher in some cooler temperatures to eastern areas while the west stays a bit warmer. Some frosts will be possible by late next week in Manitoba, though models are working that out.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR BRAZIL

Drier weather continues in Brazil through next week, though a few isolated showers may fall over Rio Grande do Sul in the south with a weak front on Monday. Rainfall amounts will be very light and the region will continue to recover from flooding. Safrinha corn, which got some needed showers across the far south last weekend, continues to be dry with rising temperatures as the crop starts to mature.

COOL AND DRY IN ARGENTINA

Dry conditions continue to favor corn and soybean harvest in Argentina, but not winter wheat planting and establishment. A front will move through this weekend with only limited showers, but there are more opportunities later next week, especially across the south.

UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUING AROUND EUROPE

Scattered showers continue through much of Europe over the next few days and over the east into early next week with an upper-level low sitting overhead. Wetness in the northwest is unfavorable for portions of the UK, France, and Germany. Another system or two moving through next week could bring more rain to both areas that need it and those that don't.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN BLACK SEA

A disturbance in the Black Sea has brought some showers northward into the region this week but has been very isolated and mostly light. Limited showers continue through the weekend, but western areas of the region that have seen better rainfall this spring will continue to see showers into early next week. Rainfall over wheat areas may be too late for most of the crop, but any rain would be helpful for summer crops. The isolated nature of the showers won't help too many areas, though. The storm track for next week has shifted to the northwest, leaving much of the region out of the shower potential but also allowing temperatures to rise and be quite high through next week as well. That puts additional stress on drier areas in the region.

WEATHER PATTERN A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE IN AUSTRALIA

A front moving through Australia this week has been bringing needed rainfall and continues in eastern areas Friday. Another system will take shape for western areas this weekend that may get into eastern areas next week. Western and southern areas will benefit from the rain that should help with planting and establishment. The transition to La Nina should bring more opportunities for beneficial rainfall over the next few months.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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