DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in Mexico and several troughs and disturbances across Canada and the U.S. The disturbances will keep the pattern active through Monday. A ridge will build up in the West early next week while the troughs shift eastward.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge is not forecast to be strong enough to hold back a trough that moves through southern Canada later next week, temporarily shifting the pattern.

Though they treat the disturbances differently with each new model run, the U.S. and European models are still pretty similar with the overall setup.

A system will go through the Midwest for Monday and Tuesday. Quieter weather doesn't last long as another system moves into the Plains midweek and pushes eastward for the end of the week and weekend, possibly in a couple of impulses. Temperatures will generally be mild next week for most areas east of the Rockies, though a burst of warmth is possible across the Midwest next weekend ahead of that next system.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...111 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW THU...12 AT GOTHIC, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...BILLINGS, MT 2.02 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in Mexico and several troughs and disturbances across Canada and the U.S. The disturbances will keep the pattern active through Monday. A ridge will build up in the West early next week while the troughs shift eastward. The ridge is not forecast to be strong enough to hold back a trough that moves through southern Canada later next week, temporarily shifting the pattern.

Though they treat the disturbances differently with each new model run, the U.S. and European models are still pretty similar with the overall setup.

A system will go through the Midwest for Monday and Tuesday. Quieter weather doesn't last long as another system moves into the Plains midweek and pushes eastward for the end of the week and weekend, possibly in a couple of impulses.

Temperatures will generally be mild next week for most areas east of the Rockies, though a burst of warmth is possible across the Midwest next weekend ahead of that next system.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system moving through Friday and a couple of disturbances that follow will keep the pattern active through Monday. Cooler temperatures will stay in place through Tuesday, and may cause some snow to mix in early Friday across North Dakota. Cold may also produce some limited frosts that will not help with germinating crops. After a brief break, another system will move through with showers mid-late next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front across the south and another system moving through will keep the region active through Sunday, causing severe weather and areas of heavy rain over portions of the region, except in the southwest, that continues to deal with drought.

Temperatures will fluctuate with fronts moving through, but will be milder next week. A system moving into the region in the middle of next week could make for some more active weather going into the weekend, initially in the High Plains, and then farther east. That may be enough to get rainfall into the drier southwest.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front near the Ohio River has been active the last couple of days and continues that way on Friday. A system is pushing through on Friday with scattered thunderstorms and more severe weather.

The final system in the incredibly active pattern moves through Sunday and Monday, though showers may linger into Tuesday. After a few day's break next week, another system may come through late next week and weekend. Only limited areas are going to be lucky enough to be dry, an unusual statement as we head into summer. Planting windows continue to be short, though producers have been taking advantage of their limited opportunities.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A stalled front in the northern half of the region has been active with thunderstorms the last couple of days and continues for Friday, causing heavy rain and severe weather potential. Additional storm systems may go through this weekend and early next week that could get more of the region active as well. A drier stretch is likely to develop after Tuesday, though it may only last until the following weekend.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): The storm track has been farther south, but showers have still developed with a trough overhead, which continues across the east on Friday, where some heavy rain may mix with snow, and across the south this weekend into next week. A larger storm system is likely to move through mid-late next week with more scattered showers. Any rain will continue to make planting progress slower, but also help to ease drought conditions.

Cooler temperatures in place will rise early next week, but will likely turn colder behind next week's system.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front in southern Brazil shifts northward through Monday, where showers will get into southern safrinha corn growing areas, favorable for any crop it rains on. Recent heavy rain in Rio Grande do Sul continues to produce flooding and damage for the region. A drier stretch of weather is expected next week.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Cold and dry conditions continue well into next week, though northeastern saw some showers with a front on Wednesday and Thursday. The cold is producing more frosts, unfavorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Drier weather will increase the remaining corn and soybean harvest.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Though there is no real system in the area, showers are continuing across much of Europe, including those that are too wet in France and Germany. The wetter weather is unfavorable for wheat development and spring planting that needs some sun and drier conditions. Showers will get into drier areas in the east, however, being more favorable there. A couple of systems are forecast to move through next week, continuing showers where they are not needed, but bringing some to other places that could use it.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): A front that moved through the region this week did not produce much of any precipitation and dryness continues to be a large-scale concern. A disturbance moving into the Black Sea could produce showers near there this weekend into early next week, but most areas are likely to stay dry. Dryness is becoming critical for wheat that started off in good shape this spring. Summer crops are also dealing with dwindling soil moisture that is unfavorable.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Dry conditions last through the weekend for most areas. A few systems may move into the country next week and models are more optimistic now about bringing some needed showers through.

Pacific Ocean temperatures continue to trend toward a favorable La Nina scenario over the next several weeks that offers better chances for needed rainfall for winter crops with time.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers overnight. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Monday, near normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Friday-Sunday, near normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers south through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Friday, near to below normal south and above normal north Saturday-Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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