Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An active pattern for the U.S. and Canada, especially through the Corn Belt with heavy rain, flooding, and severe weather, wet weather in western Europe, continued dryness in the Black Sea, and flooding rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

HEAVY RAIN FELL, MORE ON THE WAY FOR MIDWEST

A large system that moved through the Midwest on Tuesday brought widespread heavy rain and severe weather to the northwest. The front to the system will settle somewhere near the Ohio River and stay active for the rest of the week. Additional systems will move through the region Friday, this weekend, and especially early next week that leave further planting windows short. Only limited areas are going to be lucky enough to be dry, an unusual statement as we head into summer. After a few days break next week, another system may come through late next week and weekend.

MORE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front across the Southern Plains and more systems moving through the Central Plains will keep the region active through Monday, causing severe weather and areas of heavy rain in some areas. Southwestern areas that continue to deal with drought are not forecast to see a lot of heavy rain, though thunderstorms that move through could bless limited areas with heavier amounts. Temperatures will fluctuate with fronts moving through, but in general will be cooler across the northwest and warmer across the south. Temperatures will be milder next week as a brief break in the active pattern allows areas to dry out. A system moving into the region late next week and weekend could make for some more active weather.

NORTHERN PLAINS STAYING ACTIVE TOO

A few more storm systems will move through the Northern Plains through Monday. Some heavy rain fell in southeastern areas on Tuesday, and some areas may see more. Cooler temperatures will stay in place through Monday and may cause some snow to mix in early Friday across North Dakota. Cold may also produce some limited frosts that will not help with germinating crops.

FRONT BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO NORTHERN DELTA

A front settling in the northern portions of the Delta for the next few days will be active with thunderstorms, causing heavy rain and severe weather potential. Additional storm systems may go through this weekend and early next week that could get more of the region active as well.

COLD AND WET IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system is moving out of the Canadian Prairies, though showers may still occur for Wednesday. The storm track is farther south, but showers will still sneak into the boundaries of the region across the east on Friday and across the south this weekend into next week. Any rain will continue to make planting progress slower, but also help ease drought conditions.

ANOTHER FRONT CREATING FLOODING IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front in southern Brazil continues with more bouts of heavy rain that will make flooding conditions worse again. That front shifts northward for Friday and the weekend, where showers will get into southern safrinha corn growing areas, favorable for any crop it rains on.

WIDESPREAD FROSTS IN ARGENTINA

Cold and dry conditions continue in Argentina into next week, though northeastern areas will see some showers with a front Wednesday and Thursday. The cold is producing more frosts, unfavorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. But drier weather will increase the remaining corn and soybean harvest.

WESTERN EUROPE STAYING WET

A system is phasing out of Europe, but showers will continue across western and central areas, including those that are too wet in France and Germany. The wetter weather is unfavorable for wheat development and spring planting that needs some sun and drier conditions. Showers will get into drier areas in the east, however, being more favorable there. Some smaller systems are forecast for next week but continue showers where they are not needed as well.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

A front moving through the Black Sea region is only forecast to produce limited light showers in some areas through Friday. Dryness is becoming critical for wheat that started off in good shape this spring. Summer crops are also dealing with dwindling soil moisture that is unfavorable.

QUIETER WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

Dry conditions in Australia last through the weekend and into early next week. A few systems may move into the country later next week, though models have backed off on how much precipitation will occur with them. Pacific Ocean temperatures continue to trend toward a favorable La Nina scenario over the next several weeks that offers better chances for needed rainfall for winter crops.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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