Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A strong cold front that will bring a risk of frost to the Plains, more active weather next week, a mix of conditions in Europe and the Black Sea, the end of the consistent wet season showers in central Brazil and heavy rain in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

COLD THIS WEEKEND FOR MIDWEST

A cold front sweeping through the Midwest is sending in colder air through the weekend. A small system will move through early next week with some showers and another burst of cooler air before temperatures start to rise later next week. Systems out to the west will move through the region next weekend going into early May and are likely to continue the active pattern. That is overall good news for western areas to build soil moisture in dry areas but not great for eastern areas that are too wet in some cases. We may see some planting delays if this pattern lasts too long into May or is too widespread and consistent.

STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A cold front will move through with scattered showers over the next couple of days and temperatures are dropping significantly into the weekend and could produce frost damage for winter wheat. The pattern stays active next week with a small disturbance and a few showers early in the week, followed by a much more widespread and sustained precipitation event later next week and weekend that could get some better rainfall everywhere, including into drier southwestern areas.

COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Cold air continues in the Northern Plains through the weekend before temperatures rise back up above normal again next week. That comes after another small disturbance moves through with showers on Monday. The setup for later next week going into early May is for more widespread precipitation through the region. If the rain is heavy, it could produce areas of wetness and planting delays.

MORE ROUNDS OF RAIN FOR DELTA

Heavy rain has led to areas of water-logged soils and flooding in the Delta recently, which will slow planting down for a while. A front will bring another round of showers through the weekend that will keep soils wet, but probably won't be enough to make it worse. The region may or may not get more of a break next week if a small storm system stays north as currently forecast, but a system could impact the region later next week or weekend as well.

WET SEASON SHOWERS SHUTTING DOWN EARLY IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front has put an end to the wet season showers in central Brazil as they have now moved north, where they are expected to stay. Heavier rain over the south this week has been helpful for safrinha corn, but not the harvest of full-season crops. Fronts coming north from Argentina will become the main source of precipitation. That does not bode well for safrinha corn in central Brazil which still has below-normal subsoil moisture and will run out quickly in May as more of the crop goes through pollination and fill. The chances for southern areas to get some needed rain in the future are higher and a front is forecast to move in early next week with showers.

ARGENTINA GETTING WET AGAIN

Drier weather in Argentina for most of this week was needed to drain soils from previous heavy rain. Another system will go through with showers this weekend, however, and should continue an active trend during the harvest of corn and soybeans. Drier weather would be more favorable for the next few weeks as harvest continues to increase. Soil moisture for the coming winter wheat crop is very favorable, however.

COOL AND WET IN EUROPE

A series of systems has been bringing showers that favor the eastern two-thirds of Europe into the weekend. A part of that system will jut westward early next week and continue showers there, which is unfavorable for winter wheat that is already too wet. Colder air flowing into much of the continent will continue to produce some spotty frosts that could cause some damage to wheat and delay corn and other summer crop planting.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR DRY BLACK SEA WHEAT

A front that has settled into the western portions of the Black Sea region is bringing some areas good rainfall into next week, but leaving the wheat areas in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia unfavorably drier and much warmer. Meanwhile, western and northern areas of the region that grow more corn should get some needed moisture as planting starts up in some areas. The rain could cause delays to that, but producers there will welcome the rainfall.

EARLY DRYNESS NOT A HUGE CONCERN FOR AUSTRALIA

Outside of a small area in the northeast, most of Australia will be dry through next week. Cotton and sorghum harvest continues to increase in mostly favorable conditions. But wheat and canola are being planted in fair to poor soil moisture for the most part. This could cause delays to planting. The ending El Nino and eventual turn to La Nina should favor the winter crops later this year.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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