Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A strong cold front that will bring a risk of frost to the Plains, a mix of conditions in Europe and the Black Sea, and the end of the consistent wet season showers in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

ONE MORE DAY OF RAIN FOR MIDWEST

A storm system has already brought heavy rain to western areas of the Midwest, though that also came with some severe weather. As it rolls eastward, it is losing the widespread heavy rainfall but will still produce rain in areas that do not necessarily need it right now. The main cold front will sweep through the region on Thursday and cold air will fill in behind it going into next week. A small system may move through early next week with some showers and another burst of cooler air before temperatures start to rise later next week. Despite some heavier rain, planting is likely to continue at a normal pace.

STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A strong storm system brought widespread showers and thunderstorms through the Central and Southern Plains early this week, though the driest areas in the southwest did not get much out of this storm. Instead, strong winds will likely dry out soils more than they already are. Later this week, the actual cold front to the system will move through with scattered showers and temperatures will drop significantly into the weekend and could produce frost damage for winter wheat.

COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A storm is exiting the Northern Plains on Wednesday, which includes some breezy winds in some areas. The storm brought widespread heavy rain to the Dakotas which will help build some soil moisture in dry areas. Cold air is filling in behind the system through the weekend before temperatures rise back up above normal again next week. Despite some areas of heavier rain, large-scale delays to early planting are not expected.

MORE ROUNDS OF RAIN FOR DELTA

Heavy rain has led to areas of water-logged soils and flooding in the Delta recently, which will slow planting down for a while. A long and drawn-out system will bring through a few rounds of showers this week that will keep soils wet but probably won't be enough to make it worse. The region may or may not get more of a break next week if a small storm system stays north as currently forecast.

WET SEASON SHOWERS SHUTTING DOWN EARLY IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front continues to move north through Brazil this week and showers are getting more isolated as the week wears on, though they will continue over the north. Heavier rain over the south has been helpful for safrinha corn, but not the harvest of full-season crops. The consistent wet season showers will be winding down behind this front and fronts coming north from Argentina will become the main source of precipitation thereafter. That does not bode well for safrinha corn in central Brazil which still has below-normal subsoil moisture and will run out quickly in May as more of the crop goes through pollination and fill. The chances for southern areas to get some needed rain in the future is higher and a front is forecast to move in early next week.

ARGENTINA TRYING TO DRY OUT

A system pulled south through Argentina over the last few days, bringing widespread heavy rain. Behind this system though, it will be drier for the next few days. However, it does look like a system will go through with showers this weekend. With more of the corn and soybean crop maturing and awaiting harvest, the wet conditions are not favorable, especially if the weekend system starts up some more active weather again. Soil moisture for the coming winter wheat crop is very favorable, however.

COOL AND WET IN EUROPE

A system or series of systems is bringing showers that favor the eastern two-thirds of Europe into the weekend. Colder air flowing into much of the continent will produce some spotty frosts that could cause some damage to wheat and delay corn and other summer crop planting. France and the UK are still too wet and the pattern does not favor drying them out much.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR DRY BLACK SEA WHEAT

A front that has settled into the Black Sea region will be bringing some areas good rainfall, but missing others, even though impulses will move through the region going into next week with several rounds of showers. The wheat areas in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia will be the driest and warmer. Meanwhile, western and northern areas of the region that grow more corn should get some needed moisture as planting starts up in some areas. The rain could cause delays, but producers there will welcome the rainfall.

EARLY DRYNESS NOT A HUGE CONCERN FOR AUSTRALIA

Outside of a small area in the northeast, most of Australia will be dry into next week. Cotton and sorghum harvest continues to increase in favorable conditions. But wheat and canola are being planted in fair to poor soil moisture for the most part. This could cause delays in planting. The ending El Nino and eventual turn to La Nina should favor the winter crops later this year.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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