Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A continued active pattern for the U.S., wetter conditions in western Europe, drier conditions in the Black Sea region, and a stalled front in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MORE RAIN COMING FOR MIDWEST

Cold air is in place for one day in the Midwest with the coldest air over the deeper snowpack across Minnesota. The rest of the region will warm up with the next disturbance moving through Thursday through Saturday with scattered showers. Another system will bring scattered showers and a renewed shot of colder temperatures for early April but this will be brief as temperatures waffle around in the active pattern. Precipitation should benefit soil moisture ahead of spring planting in most areas.

STORM SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Cold temperatures in much of HRW territory this week may have caused damage. Temperatures rise Thursday with more showers being possible into the weekend before another system goes through early next week. Models are inconsistent about precipitation production for southwestern areas with this last storm, but potential is there for some help for drier soils.

COLDER AND ACTIVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Showers will move across the Northern Plains through Monday, which may include some areas of heavy snow. Temperatures should remain on the colder side of normal through at least Monday, then waffle around in the active pattern.

GOOD SOIL MOISTURE FOR DELTA

Soils are in good shape across most of the Delta and big enough breaks between storms could lead to some early planting where it is not too wet. Cooler and wetter conditions may limit planting in most places, though, with another system moving through with another chance for rain early next week.

SHOWERS CONTINUE IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BRAZIL

A front that has settled into central Brazil since the weekend continues to produce good showers for safrinha corn. That probably shifts into northern Brazil this weekend or early next week, though showers may continue in a more isolated fashion. The recent heavier rain is promising to build in some decent subsoil moisture where reserves have been more limited, but moving the needle is very difficult and the most recent satellite image continues to show very low subsoil moisture. At the same time, areas to the south have been much drier and may have to rely on that built up soil moisture earlier than normal, which may be harmful if levels get too low too quickly. A little system moving through early next week may provide at least some showers, but the region is likely to remain drier as conditions are wetter to the north and south.

ACTIVE PATTERN STARTING BACK UP IN ARGENTINA THIS WEEKEND

A small disturbance brought some showers to southern Argentina over the last couple of days, but it has been mostly dry this week. That is not ideal for filling corn and soybeans but has allowed for some of the wetter areas to dry out a bit. A system should bring showers through this weekend, which looks to start up a more active week of weather.

WHEAT GETTING TOO DRY IN BLACK SEA

A system that moved through the Black Sea region on Tuesday brought some areas of showers but missed some key areas of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia, which have been too dry over the last few weeks. Other systems going through Europe will likely escape around the region or produce limited showers for the next week or two. Warm air moving in will favor developing winter wheat, but also dry out soils.

FRANCE AND UK STILL WET IN ACTIVE EUROPEAN PATTERN

A big storm will stay close to the UK, sending several waves of showers through Europe through next week. Precipitation will be heavier in the west, which favors Spain but not the UK or France, which continue to be too wet.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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