DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a pair of troughs in the Central and East, a trough near the Pacific Northwest that will move down into California this weekend, and a little disturbance in the Canadian Prairies.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The latter two will head east next week and another trough will dive into the West by the end of next week. The constant movement of troughs through the continent will keep the pattern active through at least the first half of April.

The U.S. and European models show the same general pattern, but differ with some of the details. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be up and down as systems come and go, but may be setting up with a warm-east and cool-west sort of look by the end of next week. A system will move through early next week with scattered showers, but may do so in an odd fashion as the two trough pieces move through. Another system is lining up to move through late next week across the north while a trough brings showers to the West next weekend.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...89 AT PUNTA GORDA, FL AND MILES CITY, FL

LOW WED...15 BELOW ZERO AT HETTINGER, ND

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT WEDNESDAY...TALLAHASSEE, FL 1.76 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a pair of troughs in the Central and East, a trough near the Pacific Northwest that will move down into California this weekend, and a little disturbance in the Canadian Prairies. The latter two will head east next week and another trough will dive into the West by the end of next week. The constant movement of troughs through the continent will keep the pattern active through at least the first half of April.

The U.S. and European models show the same general pattern, but differ with some of the details. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be up and down as systems come and go, but may be setting up with a warm-east and cool-west sort of look by the end of next week. A system will move through early next week with scattered showers, but may do so in an odd fashion as the two trough pieces move through.

Another system is lining up to move through late next week across the north while a trough brings showers to the West next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers will move across the region through the weekend, which may include some areas of heavy snow.

Temperatures should remain on the colder side of normal through at least Monday, then waffle around in the active pattern.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Cold temperatures in much of HRW territory this week may have caused damage. Temperatures rise Thursday with more showers being possible into the weekend before another system goes through early next week. Models are inconsistent about precipitation production for southwestern areas with this last storm, but potential is there for some help for drier soils.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Cold air is in place for one day with the coldest air over the deeper snow pack across Minnesota. The rest of the region will warm up with the next disturbance moving through Thursday through Saturday with scattered showers. Another system will bring scattered showers and a renewed shot of colder temperatures for early April, but will be brief as temperatures waffle around in the active pattern. The precipitation should benefit soil moisture ahead of spring planting in most areas.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Soils are in good shape across most of the region and big enough breaks between storms could lead to some early planting where it is not too wet. Cooler and wetter conditions may limit planting in most places, though, with another system moving through with another chance for rain early next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front that has settled into central Brazil since the weekend continues to produce good showers for safrinha corn. That probably shifts into northern Brazil this weekend or early next week, though showers may continue in a more isolated fashion. The recent heavier rain is promising to build in some decent subsoil moisture where reserves have been more limited, but moving the needle is very difficult and the most recent satellite image continues to show very low subsoil moisture. At the same time, areas to the south has been much drier and may have to rely on that built up soil moisture earlier than normal, which may be harmful if levels get too low too quickly. A little system moving through early next week may provide at least some showers, but the region is likely to remain drier as conditions are wetter to the north and south.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A small disturbance brought some showers to southern areas over the last couple of days, but it has been dry this week. That is not ideal for filling corn and soybeans but has allowed for some of the wetter areas to dry out a bit. A system should bring showers through this weekend, which looks to start up a more active week of weather.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A big storm will stay close to the UK, sending several waves of showers through Europe through next week. Precipitation will be heavier in the west, which favors Spain but not the UK or France, which continue to be too wet.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A system that moved through Tuesday brought some areas of showers, but missed some areas of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia, which have been too dry over the last few weeks. Other systems going through Europe will likely escape around the region, or produce limited showers. Warm air moving building in will favor developing winter wheat, but also dry out soils.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A front brought showers to Queensland recently, which may help some areas build in some soil moisture.

Drier weather elsewhere is fine for harvesting cotton and sorghum, but not for building in soil moisture ahead of winter wheat planting, which begins in mid-April. A little system may bring some limited showers to eastern areas early next week, but does not look to bring much rain to many locations.

However, the ending El Nino and eventual turn to La Nina should favor the winter crops later this year.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures below to well below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Monday.

East: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Monday.

Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers north Saturday-Sunday.

Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, above to well above normal Friday-Sunday, near to below normal north and above normal south Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday.

Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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