Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Cold air flowing into the U.S. Plains, a continued active pattern for the U.S., and a stalled front in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

BIG STORM EXITS MIDWEST, BUT STILL ACTIVE

A big system continues to move through the Midwest on Tuesday with areas of showers and thunderstorms and heavy snow in the northwest. Some thunderstorms could be severe. Cold air will fill in behind the storm this week with the coldest air over the deeper snowpack across Minnesota. The rest of the region will warm up ahead of the next disturbance later this week. Some showers may fall because of that system this weekend. Another system may bring scattered showers and a renewed shot of colder temperatures for early April. The precipitation from the more active pattern should benefit soil moisture ahead of spring planting.

COLD IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system brought widespread precipitation to the Central and Southern Plains on Sunday and Monday, including some moderate snow and blizzard conditions. Cold air will be in the region for a few days, which will bring about some 10s through much of HRW territory that could cause damage Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. The cold relents by late week with more showers possible late week and weekend before another system goes through early next week. Models are backing away from a meaningful precipitation producer for southwestern areas with this last storm, but potential is still there.

COLD CONTINUES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Cold air and a storm system led to a burst of snow moving into the Northern Plains over the weekend and Monday, which also brought moderate winds that produced some blizzard conditions in spots. Some additional showers may move through later this week and weekend, but models are not consistent with any of the details to the system moving through. Though they will waffle around, temperatures should remain on the colder side of normal.

HEAVY RAIN FOR DELTA

A cold front brought a line of showers and thunderstorms through the Delta on Monday with heavy rain. Another storm will move through early next week with more rainfall. Soils are in good shape across most of the region and big enough breaks between storms could lead to some early planting where it is not too wet. Cooler and wetter conditions may limit planting in most places, though.

FRONT CONTINUES IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front settled into central Brazil over the weekend where it produced good showers for safrinha corn. The front will remain stalled almost all week, promising to build in some decent subsoil moisture where reserves have been more limited. At the same time, areas to the south will be much drier and have to rely on that built up soil moisture earlier than normal, which may be harmful if levels get too low too quickly. A little system moving through early next week may provide at least some showers.

DRIER IN ARGENTINA

Outside of a small disturbance with a few showers for southern Argentina Tuesday and Wednesday, it should be dry this week, which is not ideal for filling corn and soybeans but will allow for some of the wetter areas to dry out a bit. A system should bring showers through this weekend, which looks to start up a more active week of weather.

WHEAT GETTING TOO DRY IN BLACK SEA

A system is moving through the Black Sea region Tuesday with some areas of showers, but won't be widespread and some areas of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia have been too dry over the last few weeks. Other systems going through Europe will likely escape around the region, which brings in warm air instead. That favors developing winter wheat, but also dries out soils which are going to hope for a slightly more active period next week.

FRANCE AND UK STILL WET IN ACTIVE EUROPEAN PATTERN

A big storm will stay close to the UK this week, sending several waves of showers through Europe throughout this week and probably next week as well. Precipitation will be heavier in the west, which favors Spain but not the UK or France, which continue to be too wet for developing winter wheat.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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