Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Cold air building in Canada with an eye on the U.S., a major storm over the weekend into next week and mixed weather conditions in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

COLDER AIR SETTLING INTO MIDWEST, BIG STORM THIS WEEKEND

A clipper brought a burst of colder air into the Midwest this weekend and made some lake-effect snow as well. That continues on Monday. Another clipper will move through the Great Lakes on Tuesday and Wednesday. More lake-effect showers will move through but most areas will stay drier. However, colder temperatures will come through the region again. That sets up another clipper to move through Thursday and Friday with a burst of snow. But the big story will be a major spring storm system that will have multiple effects this weekend including heavy snow, freezing rain, strong winds and severe storm potential.

STORM TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers continued across the Southern Plains over the weekend as a front got stuck in Texas and an upper-level low spun over the Four Corners area. The low will have some influence early this week with some isolated showers but will bring some more widespread showers through on Wednesday and Thursday as it finally moves east. The pattern gets very active afterward, but the storm track will be over the northern end of the region, keeping most areas drier. Nebraska and eastern areas stand better chances at scattered showers and thunderstorms out of this, but the current forecast is not favorable for wheat areas. A burst of arctic air may flow down through the region next week behind a particularly large storm, which could be damaging for some wheat.

SNOW AND COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A clipper brought through a burst of cold air to the Northern Plains over the weekend. A brief warm shot will move through early this week but another round of cold air will push into the region midweek to likely last through most of next week as well. In the colder air, several systems will move through with scattered showers, mostly as snow. Some of these bursts could be heavier, especially with a storm system this weekend that could bring blizzard conditions.

GOOD SOIL MOISTURE IN THE DELTA

Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through southern areas of the Delta over the weekend, helping to maintain overall good soil moisture in much of the region. Several additional storm systems will move through the region this week and next, which should do the same.

IMPROVED RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front moved into southern Brazil with scattered showers this weekend, as well as some areas of heavy rain. That front keeps much of the country active this week but another that moves through Thursday and Friday will move up into central states. That should leave some good rain for safrinha corn which has had very little over the last week but the drier conditions behind the front in the south will not be favorable. The current forecast though is to bring those showers back down south next week, if that materializes, it would be better for corn.

STRONG FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH ARGENTINA

A front moved north out of Argentina with scattered showers this weekend, but a couple of disturbances will move through this week that should bring more showers through the country. A stronger front will move through on Wednesday. It may have widespread heavy showers with it, but conditions will dry out behind it through the weekend. More disturbances moving through next week should keep the overall good conditions going, however.

WHEAT IN GOOD CONDITION IN BLACK SEA

An upper-low brought showers to western Russia over the weekend and another one is moving into Ukraine early this week, getting into the Black Sea by the end of the week, keeping some showers going into the weekend. A front should sweep through the region next week with the potential for more widespread and heavier showers. Soil moisture and wheat conditions are both in good shape as the crop continues to green up early.

FRANCE STILL WET IN ACTIVE EUROPEAN PATTERN

Scattered showers went through Europe over the weekend, primarily across the north. An upper-level low will approach Spain this week, but stay offshore, bringing in limited showers. This could move eastward this weekend as another system dives down through the continent and next week looks active as well. In other words, precipitation will be widespread through the end of the month, favorable for winter wheat in most areas, but still too wet in France most likely.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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