Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A system moving through the U.S. this week, a change to colder this weekend with more next week, a return of rain to Brazil and excessive rain in parts of Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

BIG STORM FOR MIDWEST, CLIPPER COMING THIS WEEKEND

A system will continue to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms through the Midwest on Thursday, including severe storms. That will be followed by a clipper this weekend with more limited showers and a burst of colder air. The cold will only last a couple of days, but another system moving through later next week should bring more showers and another burst of cold air that could linger longer.

STORM CONTINUES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A stronger storm system continues to bring scattered showers to the Central and Southern Plains through Friday. An upper-level low-pressure center could keep showers in the southern end of the region going into next week, a benefit to wheat if it does. A cold front will slide through the region over the weekend and bring a burst of colder air through. It won't last long, but another system should move through later next week with another burst of cold air and scattered showers.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system to the south may bring a few showers through the Northern Plains on Thursday. A clipper system will move through on Friday and Saturday with more showers and a quick burst of cold air. The cold will not stick around for very long, but additional systems moving through next week should reinforce that cold air.

MORE SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA

A system will move through the Delta with scattered showers and thunderstorms into the weekend and a stronger cold front will move through this weekend with a drop in temperatures. Soil moisture continues to be in good shape before spring planting. Soil temperatures are supportive of planting, but colder temperatures moving in behind that stronger front this weekend and another later next week should reduce early activity.

WETTER NEXT WEEK FOR BRAZIL

Scattered showers have been limited to central and especially northern Brazil this week, unfavorable for safrinha corn as it has been drier across the south. A front moving north out of Argentina this weekend will bring in more widespread and beneficial showers to a good portion of the country next week, however.

HEAVY RAIN IN ARGENTINA

A front has been stuck in the middle of Argentina and produced scattered showers that continue Thursday, favorable for filling corn and soybeans. The front will move into northern areas this weekend where it will probably remain active into next week. Another front will push it northward in the middle of next week. Some areas will get too much rain and others not enough but is widespread enough to be beneficial for both corn and soybeans.

WHEAT IN GOOD CONDITION IN BLACK SEA

A system will move through the Black Sea region with isolated to scattered showers over the next couple of days. Another system will move into western areas early next week with some showers as well. Though the rain is not all that widespread, soil moisture in the region is favorable. Above-normal temperatures will continue through next week and the crop is currently in good condition.

RAIN FOCUS SHIFTING TO NORTHERN EUROPE

Systems will scrape through northern Europe going into next week with scattered showers. Another system may go through southern areas later next week with meaningful rain. Good rain has fallen across the south recently, favoring early-developing winter wheat. France remains too wet and could use some drier conditions, but that is not on the table right now. Temperatures continue to be mild to warm and wheat should continue to develop early.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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