Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A system moving through the U.S. this week, a change to colder this weekend and drier conditions in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

WARM WITH ANOTHER BIG STORM FOR MIDWEST

A weak front will go through the Midwest on Tuesday with potential showers and thunderstorms but these will be limited. A bigger system will affect the region on Wednesday and Thursday and be followed by a clipper this weekend with more showers and a burst of colder air. The cold may not last all that long, but another clipper moving through later next week should bring more showers and another burst of cold air.

BIG STORM COMING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Above-normal temperatures continue in the Central and Southern Plains for the next couple of days. A stronger storm system will move into the region on Wednesday with scattered showers through at least Friday, but an upper-level low-pressure center could keep showers in the region through the weekend. A cold front will slide through the region over the weekend and bring a burst of colder air through. It won't last long, but another clipper should move through later next week with another burst of cold air and potential showers.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Above-normal temperatures will continue in the Northern Plains this week, melting what remains of last week's snow. A system will scrape southern areas of the region on Wednesday and Thursday. A clipper system will move through on Friday and Saturday with more showers and a quick burst of cold air. The cold may not stick around for very long, but additional clipper systems moving through next week should reinforce that cold air going through next week.

MORE SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA LATER THIS WEEK

A system will move through the Delta later this week with scattered showers and thunderstorms. A stronger cold front will move through this weekend with more showers and a drop in temperatures. Soil moisture continues to be in good shape before spring planting. Soil temperatures are supportive of planting, but colder temperatures are moving in behind a strong cold front this weekend and another later next week should limit early activity.

DRIER THIS WEEK, WETTER NEXT WEEK FOR BRAZIL

Scattered showers will be limited to central and especially northern Brazil this week, unfavorable for safrinha corn as it will be drier across the south. A front moving north out of Argentina this weekend or early next week will bring in more widespread and beneficial showers, however.

FRONT STUCK IN ARGENTINA

A front is stuck in the middle of Argentina and will produce scattered showers throughout the week, favorable for filling corn and soybeans. The front will move into northern areas this weekend where it will probably remain active into next week. Some areas will get too much rain and others not enough, but overall is widespread enough to be beneficial for both corn and soybeans.

WHEAT IN GOOD CONDITION IN BLACK SEA

Sub-freezing temperatures moved into the Black Sea region over the weekend, but wheat is not developed enough to have been damaged by the frost. A system will move through the region with isolated to scattered showers over the next couple of days. Though it is not all that widespread, soil moisture in the region is favorable. Temperatures will be rising later this week and most of the crops are in favorable condition.

RAIN FOCUS SHIFTING TO NORTHERN EUROPE

A large low-pressure system continues to move through southeastern Europe with scattered showers through Wednesday. Other systems will scrape through northern areas later this week and weekend. Good rain has fallen across the south recently, favoring early developing winter wheat. This week's rain should help other areas as well, though France remains too wet and could use some drier conditions, but that is not on the table right now. Temperatures continue to be mild to warm and wheat should continue to develop early.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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