Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A system moving through the U.S. this week, a change to colder this weekend, and drier conditions in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

WARM WITH ANOTHER BIG STORM FOR MIDWEST

A system went through the Midwest over the weekend with widespread showers, which were heavy in some drier areas but not in Iowa, where deficits still remain large. A weak front will go through on Tuesday with potential showers and thunderstorms but would be limited. A bigger system will affect the region on Wednesday and Thursday and be followed by a clipper Friday through the weekend with more widespread precipitation. Amounts may not be heavy where it's needed the most in the west, however. Temperatures will be warm this week but much colder behind the clipper going into next week. Models disagree on how cold and for how long, though.

BIG STORM COMING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Friday's snow has almost melted away over the weekend, though it remains in areas that are near or over a foot in northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska. It will not last long with warm temperatures in the region this week. A stronger storm system is forecast to move into the Central and Southern Plains on Wednesday with scattered showers through at least Friday, but an upper-level low-pressure center could keep showers in the region through the weekend. Models are unsure about that. A cold front will slide through the region over the weekend and bring a burst of colder air through, but models are also unsure how long that will last.

NORTHERN PLAINS WARM WITH LIMITED SHOWERS

Above-normal temperatures will be in place across the Northern Plains this week, melting what remains of last week's snow. A system will scrape southern areas of the region on Wednesday and Thursday. A clipper system is likely to move through on Friday and Saturday with more showers and a quick burst of cold air. Models are unsure how long the cold may stick around, but additional clipper systems moving through could reinforce that cold air going through next week.

MORE SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA LATER THIS WEEK

A system brought widespread showers and thunderstorms through the Delta late last week and another system will do something similar later this week as well. Soil moisture continues to be much improved and in good shape before spring planting. Soil temperatures are supportive of planting, but the risk of colder temperatures moving in behind a strong cold front this weekend should limit any early activity.

DRIER WEEK FOR BRAZIL

Scattered showers fell across large portions of central and southern Brazil over the weekend, favorable for crops, especially newly-planted safrinha corn. Scattered showers will be more frequent across central and northern Brazil this week, though at a reduced intensity. Southern areas will be unfavorably drier but should see a front moving north out of Argentina this weekend or early next week with beneficial showers.

FRONT STUCK IN ARGENTINA

Scattered showers went through a good portion of Argentina over the weekend and set a front into the middle of the country that will get stuck and produce scattered showers throughout the week, favorable for filling corn and soybeans. The front will move into northern areas this weekend where it will probably remain active into next week.

WHEAT IN GOOD CONDITION IN BLACK SEA

Sub-freezing temperatures moved into the Black Sea region over the weekend, but wheat is not developed enough to have been damaged by the frost. The system will move through the region with isolated to scattered showers this week. Though they are not all that widespread, soil moisture in the region is favorable. Temperatures will be rising later this week and most of the crops are in favorable condition.

RAIN FOCUS SHIFTING TO NORTHERN EUROPE

A large low-pressure system moved into Europe over the weekend with widespread showers that continue through midweek. Other systems will scrape through northern areas later this week and weekend. Good rain has fallen across the south recently, favoring early developing winter wheat. This week's rain should help other areas as well, though France remains too wet and could use some drier conditions, but that is not on the table right now. Temperatures continue to be mild to warm and wheat should continue to develop early.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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