Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A system moving through the U.S. with needed showers in the Southern Plains and another for next week, along with widespread showers in South America, are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

SOIL MOISTURE BUILDING IN THE MIDWEST

A cold front brought scattered showers to the Midwest the last couple of days. Though temperatures have decreased behind the front, they are still above normal. Another storm system will move Thursday through the weekend with more widespread precipitation and chances for snow in some areas and another is forecast for the end of next week. All three systems should help build moisture, especially in the Ohio Valley. Temperatures still remain warm going into mid-March and may coax some early planting across the south in the next couple of weeks if the forecast is benign. However, colder temperatures are forecast for the last 10 days or so of the month.

TWO SYSTEMS BRINGING SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system developing in the Central and Southern Plains will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms through Friday. That will also include some pockets of snow, mostly in the High Plains. Another system will move through in the middle to end of next week with more widespread showers as well. Both will add soil moisture for helping to fight any outstanding wildfires and replace soil moisture losses due to higher winds and temperatures that have sapped it from the topsoil recently, which is beneficial for wheat.

NORTHERN PLAINS TEMPERATURES RISING THIS WEEKEND

Some cooler air will remain around the Northern Plains for the next couple of days before rising again this weekend. Some light snow continues in the south on Thursday, but will be overall drier until the middle of next week with another system moving in.

MORE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH DELTA

Above-normal temperatures continue in the Delta through mid-March while a system brings more rainfall through the region over the next couple of days and another does so later next week. The combination of good soil moisture and warm temperatures may coax some early planting in the region over the next couple of weeks. However, a burst of colder air is likely to come in later this month, which could turn around ideas for early planting.

OVERALL GOOD SHOWERS IN BRAZIL

Wet season showers in central Brazil continue to be widely scattered into next week, favorable for emerging safrinha corn. A front in southern Brazil will continue to be active the next day or two as well as it bends around the region. Another wave of showers will move north into southern states this weekend, favoring an increase in soil moisture for immature long-season crops and for the newly planted safrinha corn.

ACTIVE PERIOD FOR ARGENTINA

Several fronts will bring waves of showers through Argentina going through next week, being particularly heavy across the north next week. The rainfall should be favorable for most areas, but is also scattered enough that it may miss some key areas across the south that could use some more rain. The overall pattern is a favorable for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans, however.

WHEAT AWAKENING IN GOOD CONDITION IN BLACK SEA

A front coming down from the north will bring in some colder air into the Black Sea region this weekend and next week, but models are keeping anything intense farther north and east. Any drop in temperatures should not have a dramatic effect on wheat that is still awakening from dormancy for the most part. Instead, a system will move through next week that should spread more meaningful moisture for the crop that is already in good condition.

MORE RAIN FOR EUROPE

A large low-pressure system will slowly spread into and through most of Europe going into next week, bringing widespread areas of showers. Models have backed off on the threat of colder air moving into eastern areas for next week, though a drop from the significant warmth is still likely. Still, conditions are mostly favorable as wheat continues to exit dormancy in many areas. France continues to be too wet though.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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