Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Warmer temperatures are returning to the North-Central U.S. today with cooler temperatures still lingering in southern areas. Showers will become more widespread across Central Brazil this weekend with more showers on the way for Argentina as well. These are the weather factors driving the markets for Thursday.

WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING ACROSS MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK

A quick burst of cold air arrived on Wednesday. Temperatures will start rebounding in the west Thursday and the east on Friday, pushing record highs again over the weekend. Another storm system is forecast to move through the region on Sunday and Monday with similar effects to the storm during the middle of this week. Widespread showers, some snow, strong winds and severe weather will all be possible. Another round of widespread precipitation is possible by the end of next week or next weekend as another system arrives from the West.

CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN DRY WITH SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN PLAINS

Though cold on Wednesday, temperatures will rebound across the north on Thursday and the south on Friday, with the region pushing high-temperature records in some places again this weekend. A small system will move across the south with some showers on Thursday with another strong storm possible Sunday and Monday. Thursday's system will have light precipitation with it and the late-weekend system could produce strong winds and another drop in temperatures. Strong winds have caused expanded wildfires in the region and that could be replicated over the weekend.

TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY

A massive drop in temperatures kept the region cold on Wednesday but will quickly rebound to be above normal again on Thursday. Another strong system will move through over the weekend with the potential for more snow and strong winds as well as another drop in temperatures. The forecast for the first half of next week is quieter and cooler, but we could see another storm system late in the week.

SOUTHERN DELTA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS AHEAD OF PLANTING

A cold front provided some isolated showers on Wednesday to southern areas and more showers will follow behind it on Thursday night into Friday. Another system will move through with more showers early next week, which could be heavier. Soil moisture continues to be much improved ahead of spring planting.

SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL THIS WEEKEND

Wet season showers in central Brazil will be isolated for the rest of this week, but they will fill back in this weekend into early next week. Southern areas will continue to see showers on Thursday as a front waffles around the region. Showers are forecast to be more sporadic and shifting next week, but fairly widespread, which should help with the long-season crops in the south and the safrinha corn in the central.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ARGENTINA

Scattered showers fell across the north on Wednesday as a front waffled around the region. Some heavy rain has fallen there recently. A smaller disturbance will bring limited showers to southern and central Argentina on Thursday but a wave of widespread showers will move through with a front this weekend. Throughout next week, central and southern areas will see isolated showers, but likely nothing heavy or widespread. Showers are not perfect, but as long as they keep coming with enough frequency, crop conditions should remain stable with overall good ratings. Some spots may be missed, however, and see conditions fall.

WHEAT COMING OUT OF DORMANCY IN BLACK SEA REGION

Conditions over the winter have been mostly favorable with frequent enough precipitation events to leave most areas with good soil moisture as wheat begins to awaken from dormancy early due to warmer temperatures. Drier conditions are expected early next week. A system may develop in the middle of next week with scattered showers. Some colder air may follow that system, which will be watched for anything significant. Snow cover is not in place over much of the region, leaving it vulnerable to any shots of cold air.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com.

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