Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Warmth across the U.S., continued good weather in most of Brazil and drier conditions in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

NEAR-RECORD WARM FOR MIDWEST

Warm temperatures and rain have eaten away at a lot of the snowpack over the last week in the Midwest. The warmth will continue this week and next and could cause some records. Some flooding will be possible where the combination of snowmelt and rainfall has been the most intense, especially in Illinois. Weak systems will move through on Tuesday and Thursday with limited showers, but most areas should stay dry. A storm system will likely go around the region this weekend but may clip some western areas.

STORM COMING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Heavier rain that moved through the Central and Southern Plains late last week helped with some of the drought in the region. Another system will move through Friday through the weekend with areas of heavy rain and potential snow in Colorado and western Nebraska. Another round of good precipitation would be helpful for dormant wheat.

VERY WARM FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers are forecast to return to the Northern Plains this weekend, with snow west and rain east. Additional precipitation is expected by the middle of next week, likely as a mix of rain and snow as well. The precipitation should help with some of the recent dryness in the region. Temperatures will continue to run above normal for the next couple of weeks.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT PASSABLE LEVELS

Heavy rain over the last week has improved soil moisture and water levels along the Mississippi River and local rivers, increasing transportation and reducing drought effects. The Delta region will be drier this week but will see another system moving through with showers this weekend that could be heavy.

SHOWERS EXPANDING ACROSS BRAZIL

Scattered, heavy rain showers moved into northern Brazil this weekend but will be expanding southward throughout the week, getting as far south as Parana by the weekend. The break in the rain could help with fieldwork, the progress of which has slowed down in recent weeks a bit. The pace of harvest and planting is still at a near-average pace at this point in the season.

WORSENING CONDITIONS FOR ARGENTINA

Another week of dry conditions threatens to reduce crop conditions again in Argentina. That could quickly turn these good ratings around when combined with the higher temperatures, which could eclipse the 100-degree Fahrenheit mark on several days for the next week across the west and south especially. Soil moisture is still good, but the increased stress will not be for the portion of the crop in the reproductive and filling stages, which is sizable for both. Models are indicating better chances for precipitation in the country sometime next week.

DRIER FOR SOUTHERN EUROPE

Precipitation continues to be limited across Spain and Italy for vegetative wheat as the storm track remains over northern Europe. Temperatures are expected to be above normal across much of the continent through next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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