DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across most of North America with a disturbance moving through the Great Lakes and a large trough in the Pacific. The trough will send several small pieces of energy through the ridge across Canada with one of them deepening in the Northeast by late week. At the same time, the trough will move into the West and send a piece of energy underneath the ridge across the South.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will shift more toward the East by later next week with the trough continuing in the West, setting up a potential active pattern in the middle of the country later next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar through next week. I will use a blend but favor the European with any differences.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be well above-normal across the North-Central states and into Canada but be cooler across the West, South, and East through much of next week. A storm system will move across the southern tier of the country this weekend and could produce some significant rain and snow in the Plains that will extend across the Gulf Coast. Another storm may move out of the West and into the Plains during the middle of next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...86 AT ANAHEIM, CA

LOW MON...4 BELOW ZERO AT GUNNISON, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT MONDAY...JUNEAU, AK 1.97 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge across most of North America with a disturbance moving through the Great Lakes and a large trough in the Pacific. The trough will send several small pieces of energy through the ridge across Canada with one of them deepening in the Northeast by late week. At the same time, the trough will move into the West and send a piece of energy underneath the ridge across the South.

The ridge will shift more toward the East by later next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar through next week. I will use a blend but favor the European with any differences.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be well above-normal across the North-Central states and into Canada but be cooler across the West, South, and East through much of next week. A storm system will move across the southern tier of the country this weekend and could produce some significant rain and snow in the Plains that will extend across the Gulf Coast. Another storm may move out of the West and into the Plains during the middle of next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers are forecast to return this weekend, with snow west and rain east. Additional precipitation is expected by the middle of next week, likely as a mix of rain and snow as well. The precipitation should help with some of the recent dryness in the region. Temperatures will continue to run above normal for the next couple of weeks.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Heavier rain that moved through late last week helped with some of the drought in the region. Another system will move through Friday through the weekend with areas of heavy rain and potential snow in Colorado and western Nebraska. Another round of good precipitation would be helpful for dormant wheat.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Warm temperatures and rain have eaten away at a lot of the snowpack over the last week. The warmth will continue this week and next. Some flooding will be possible where the combination of snowmelt and rainfall has been the most intense, especially in Illinois. Weak systems will move through on Tuesday and Thursday with limited showers, but most areas should stay dry. A storm system will likely go around the region this weekend but may clip some western areas.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Heavy rain over the last week has improved soil moisture and water levels along the Mississippi River and local rivers, increasing transportation and reducing drought effects. The region will be drier this week, but will see another system moving through with showers this weekend that could be heavy.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered, heavy rain showers moved into northern Brazil this weekend but will be expanding southward throughout the week, getting as far south as Parana by the weekend. The break in the rain could help with fieldwork, the progress of which has slowed down in recent weeks a bit.

The pace of harvest and planting is still on a near-average pace at this point in the season.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Another week of dry conditions threatens to reduce crop conditions again and could quickly turn these good ratings around when combined with the higher temperatures, which could eclipse the 100-degree mark on several days for the next week across the west and south especially. Soil moisture is still good, but the increased stress will not be for the portion of the crop in reproductive and filling stages, which is sizable for both. Models are indicating better chances for precipitation in the country sometime next week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Precipitation continues to be limited across Spain and Italy for vegetative wheat as the storm track remains over northern Europe.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal across much of the continent through next week.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Tropical Cyclone Kirrily dissipated but still produced heavy rainfall in Queensland this weekend. The remnants to the tropical cyclone may still bring showers there through the weekend and possibly longer. Though some flooding would not be favorable, it could help to add to soil moisture for cotton and sorghum, as well as build subsoil moisture for winter wheat later this year. Other areas of the country remain unfavorably dry for the next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Isolated showers overnight. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday. Temperatures above to well above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday.

Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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