Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- One last burst of arctic air across the U.S. through the weekend but a flip to warm next week, continued good weather in most of Brazil, and drier conditions in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD FOR MIDWEST

A clipper will come through the Midwest with a band of light to moderate snow Thursday and Friday, followed by another arctic blast. The cold will not last all that long as warm air moves back in by Monday. Some areas have been exposed to the arctic cold and thus susceptible to winterkill on winter wheat. The warmer air will also bring in several rounds of precipitation next week. The front end of it could be cold enough for some areas of snow across the north Monday into Tuesday.

QUICK BURST OF COLD COMING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Another burst of energy will bring another round of harsh cold to the Central and Southern Plains for Friday and Saturday. The snow from the system is most likely to be light in Nebraska. Much of the winter wheat crop is covered by recent snow, but large parts of Oklahoma and all of Texas have been uncovered and are more susceptible to winterkill. The warmer air will start to move in Sunday and produce areas of showers for next week, primarily in the southeast. That should be mostly rain and will help melt the snowpack.

COLD NOW, WARMTH COMING FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A clipper moving through the Northern Plains will bring another burst of arctic air for the next couple of days but should be replaced by mild air starting Sunday. Harsh cold has had a detrimental effect on livestock and for those who care for them. The clipper is bringing a band of mostly light snow, and mostly to southern and western areas.

DELTA WITH IMPROVED SOIL MOISTURE AND RIVER LEVELS

Any snow that remains in the Delta may protect winter wheat from arctic temperatures that will move in Friday through the weekend. Exposed areas are at risk of winterkill. Recent heavy storms of the last couple of weeks have significantly boosted water levels on the Mississippi River, which should increase transportation for at least a little while. More rain that flows in next week will also be a benefit and melt any snow cover.

WIDESPREAD GOOD RAINFALL FOR BRAZIL

Showers in central Brazil have had low coverage this week. Heavier rain across the south has been favorable for some of the drier areas, including Sao Paulo and Parana. A slow-moving front will bring widespread showers to southern areas through Friday and boost showers for central areas this weekend that continues through next week. Overall, the weather situation is improved or improving for much of the country and even the drier stretch in central Brazil is not overly concerning for filling soybeans. Soil moisture is not adequate for safrinha corn, however, and more consistent showers will be important for planting, which should start up shortly.

DRY IN ARGENTINA

Recent precipitation in Argentina has been heavy, bringing good soil moisture to most of the country. Drier conditions are looking likely for at least the next two weeks. Corn and soybean conditions are likely to fall toward the end of the month.

SOUTHERN EUROPE HAVING BENEFICIAL RAIN

A large storm continues in southern Europe and a second burst to the storm will move through the Mediterranean through Saturday with more showers for wheat areas. Good precipitation over the south is favorable for vegetative wheat in Spain and Italy, but the storm track moves north next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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