Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Cold, arctic air across the U.S. through the weekend but a flip to warm next week, continued good weather in most of Brazil but drier conditions in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

SIGNIFICANT COLD CONTINUES FOR MIDWEST

Harshly cold, arctic air will be in place across the Midwest throughout the week, though will have a brief moderation Wednesday and Thursday before a clipper comes through with more snow on Thursday and Friday and another arctic blast. The cold will not last all that long as warm air moves back in by Monday. Some areas have been exposed to the arctic cold and thus susceptible to winterkill on winter wheat.

SECOND BURST OF COLD COMING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A blast of arctic cold that moved into the Central and Southern Plains late last week is moderating a bit on Wednesday. Much of the winter wheat crop is covered by recent snow, but large parts of Oklahoma and all of Texas have been uncovered and have been more susceptible to winterkill. Another burst of energy will bring another round of harsh cold for late week and weekend. The snow from the system is most likely to be light in Nebraska, but the harshest cold should be shorter as warmer air floods the region starting Sunday.

COLD NOW, WARMTH COMING FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Another burst of arctic air for the Northern Plains will follow a clipper moving through on Wednesday and Thursday, but should be replaced by mild air starting Sunday. Harsh cold has had a detrimental effect on livestock and for those that care for them. The clipper will bring a band of snow, mostly to southern and western areas.

DELTA WITH IMPROVED SOIL MOISTURE AND RIVER LEVELS

Harsh cold air brought in a wintry mix of precipitation to the Delta Sunday into Monday. Any snow may protect winter wheat from the current cold temperatures. Another burst of very cold air will move in Friday through the weekend that could also create issues for wheat. Recent heavy storms of the last couple of weeks have significantly boosted water levels on the Mississippi River, which should increase transportation for at least a little while.

WIDESPREAD GOOD RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Showers in central Brazil will continue to have low coverage this week. Heavier rain across the south has been favorable for some of the drier areas, including Sao Paulo and Parana. A slow-moving front will bring widespread showers to southern areas through Friday and boost showers for central areas this weekend. Overall, the weather situation is improved or improving and even the drier stretch in central Brazil is not overly concerning for filling soybeans. Soil moisture is not adequate for safrinha corn, however, and more consistent showers will be important for planting, which should start up shortly.

GETTING DRIER IN ARGENTINA

Recent precipitation in Argentina has been heavy, bringing good soil moisture to most of the country. Drier conditions are looking likely for at least the next week or more likely longer. Corn and soybeans should be able to handle a period of drier weather with little disruption to development. If the drier period lasts too long, it could be more concerning, however.

SOUTHERN EUROPE HAVING BENEFICIAL RAIN

A large storm is moving through Europe over the next couple of days with widespread precipitation. A second will move through the Mediterranean Thursday through Saturday with more showers for wheat areas. Good precipitation over the south is favorable for vegetative wheat in Spain and Italy.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.