Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Cold, arctic air across the U.S. through the weekend, and continued good weather in most of South America are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

SIGNIFICANT COLD CONTINUES FOR MIDWEST

The Midwest is tired of huge winter storms after seeing tons of snow and blizzard conditions over the last week. Harshly cold, arctic air will be in place throughout the week, though will have a brief moderation midweek before a clipper comes through with more snow Thursday and Friday and another arctic blast. The cold will not last all that long as warm air moves back in early next week. Some areas have been exposed to the arctic cold and thus susceptible to winterkill on winter wheat.

SECOND BURST OF COLD COMING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A blast of arctic cold beset most of the Central and Southern Plains this weekend and came with some additional snow Sunday and Monday. Much of the winter wheat crop is covered by recent snow, but much of Oklahoma and Texas have been uncovered and are more susceptible to winterkill. Some moderation is expected midweek, but another burst of energy will bring another round of harsh cold for late week and weekend. The snow is most likely in Nebraska yet again, but the harshest cold should be shorter as warmer air floods the region next week.

COLD NOW, WARMTH COMING FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Extremely cold arctic air will continue to be in place across the Northern Plains this week but should be replaced by mild air this weekend. Harsh cold has had a detrimental effect on livestock and for those who care for them. A round of light to moderate snow is forecast to come through on Thursday, adding to some of the cold concerns.

DELTA WITH IMPROVED SOIL MOISTURE AND RIVER LEVELS

Harsh cold air brought in a wintry mix of precipitation Sunday into Monday to the Delta. Any snow may protect winter wheat from the arctic temperatures. Another burst of very cold air will move in Friday through the weekend that could also create issues for wheat. Recent heavy storms of the last week or so have significantly boosted water levels on the Mississippi River, which should increase transportation for at least a little while.

WIDESPREAD GOOD RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Showers in central Brazil were somewhat isolated over the weekend and will continue to have low coverage this week. Heavier rain across the south has been favorable for some of the drier areas, including Sao Paulo and Parana. A slow-moving front will bring widespread showers to southern areas mid to late week and boost showers for central areas this weekend. Overall, the weather situation is improved or improving and even the drier stretch in central Brazil is not overly concerning for filling soybeans. Soil moisture is not adequate for safrinha corn, however, and more consistent showers will be important for planting, which should start up in the next couple of weeks.

STREAK OF GOOD RAIN ENDING IN ARGENTINA

Scattered showers fell over a good portion of Argentina over the long holiday weekend. Another system will bring rounds of heavier rain through Tuesday and Wednesday, especially for northern areas. Drier conditions are looking likely afterward through the middle of next week or possibly longer. Soil moisture continues to be very good across most of the country and should be able to handle a period of drier weather with little disruption to development. If the drier period lasts too long, it could be more concerning, however.

EUROPE STAYING ACTIVE

At least one big storm is expected to move through Europe this week with widespread precipitation. A second may move through the Mediterranean late week and weekend. Good precipitation over the south is favorable for vegetative wheat in Spain and Italy.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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