Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A monster storm system and a blast of arctic air in the U.S., continued good weather in most of South America, but a drier stretch coming to central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday ahead of USDA's big WASDE report.

BLIZZARD, THEN ARCTIC COLD FOR MIDWEST

A storm system is bombing out in the Midwest on Friday, which is producing a big shield of precipitation that will grow throughout the day. Heavy snow on the north side of the storm track will produce another 6-12 inches of snow from Iowa to Michigan and strong winds due to the deepening low-pressure center will create blizzard conditions. Lake-effect snow will continue through most of next week. Arctic air will flood the region behind the storm system and another potential storm later next week will bring another burst of arctic through as well.

DEEP COLD FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Heavy snow went through Nebraska again last night and will slowly peel out of the eastern half of the state Friday. Arctic air is flooding the Central and Southern Plains and will stick around to some degree through next weekend, coming in a couple of bursts -- one now and another later next week. Temperatures should moderate after next weekend. Exposed areas are at risk from winterkill for winter wheat. Another storm system may show some development on Sunday across the region, though models still disagree on its development. However, it could mean accumulating snow and freezing rain across the south going into Monday.

ARCTIC AIR BREAKING RECORDS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Deep arctic air will likely stick around the Northern Plains through next weekend before moderating, though it comes in two bursts, one currently through the weekend, and another later next week and weekend. Records are likely to be broken in portions of the region. The harsh cold will necessitate additional feed for livestock and the quick snap in temperatures could be extra stressful.

HEAVY RAIN EXITING DELTA, WINTRY WEATHER POSSIBLE MONDAY

Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is moving through the Delta on Friday, helping to ease drought and boost water levels on the Mississippi River. Arctic air will fill in behind the system for the weekend, and could set the stage for a wintry mix of precipitation on Monday. Models disagree about the development of this system. Another storm may develop later next week as well, followed by another burst of cold air.

RAINFALL WANING IN CENTRAL BRAZIL, WAVES OF SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH

Scattered showers will continue in central Brazil through the weekend, though the coverage and intensity are decreasing. Those showers will still be in the region next week, however they should be very isolated, causing some discussion about further damage to soybeans and a lack of soil moisture for the coming safrinha corn crop. Across the south, waves of showers are moving through the region for the next week, favorable for filling soybeans and developing other crops. Some of the areas like Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo that have been drier will see much better rainfall.

MORE SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Rainfall in Argentina this week has been rather widespread, and heavy across the north, favoring developing corn and soybeans. Additional waves of showers are forecast across the country through at least the middle of next week, which maintains the overall favorable conditions. Models disagree on whether or not it gets drier starting late next week, but the country is still in really good position with widespread favorable soil moisture.

EUROPE STAYING ACTIVE

Recent rains across southern Europe have been favorable for vegetative winter wheat in Spain and Italy. The pattern stays active across the continent with more storm systems next week that could be more widespread across the region.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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