Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An active pattern with a monster storm for the U.S. next week, heavy rainfall in central Brazil and continued good weather in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

QUIET MIDWEST UNTIL THE WEEKEND

A couple of systems may scrape through the Midwest this week and weekend, with the most likely area to get significant precipitation in the far east on Saturday. Models are working that out but appear to be favoring some snow accumulation. A storm system that goes through next week is forecast to be much more significant with impacts. Another storm that follows for late week will send temperatures plummeting across the region, especially in the west -- a big flip from the near-record warm December.

STORMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

The storm track will set up over the Central and Southern Plains and bring a few storms through over the next couple of weeks. A very weak system went through Texas with some heavy rain Tuesday. A stronger storm system looks to bring a mix of rain and snow to the region Thursday and Friday, and then an even larger system is forecast for early next week which may bring another blizzard. Models are still working that out, but it should be another strong event with snow accumulation possibly as far south as Texas. Another system that follows midweek will send temperatures plummeting for mid-January.

NORTHERN PLAINS MISSING OUT ON ACTIVE PATTERN

Quiet conditions are likely in the Northern Plains for the rest of the week as systems miss off to the north and south, though some light snow may move through on Friday and Saturday. A strong system early next week will probably miss the region but one shortly behind it should send temperatures falling below normal for mid-January.

MORE RAIN COMING FOR DELTA

This week will show some life as the El Nino storm track brings two systems through the Delta with scattered showers. A much larger storm is forecast for next week as well. Water levels on the Mississippi River have been up and down over the last several weeks with storm systems improving conditions for a while followed by a period of lower flow, but the coming active weather should be more helpful.

HEAVY RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Widespread heavy showers over the weekend for central Brazil should be overall helpful for filling soybeans. That same weather continues through this weekend and most of next week as well, especially from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais. Southern areas will go drier until a system comes north from Argentina Sunday or Monday, followed by several waves of showers for mid-January. Recent drier weather in the south has been favorable overall for draining excessive moisture in the region, but a return to seasonable rainfall would be preferred for developing to filling crops.

GOOD WEATHER FOR ARGENTINA

Frequent rainfall over the last several weeks has put much of the corn and soybean crop in Argentina in a good place, with some of the long-season corn reaching reproduction with full soil moisture. Rainfall will be light this week, but it is still occurring for limited areas, especially south. Rainfall is forecast to increase this weekend and should come at a regular clip for next week with several disturbances moving through. Weather continues to favor both corn and soybeans.

MORE RAIN AND SNOW FOR EUROPE

The pattern continues to be active in Europe this week with several systems going through, including one across the south for late week and weekend, which should help some drier areas in Spain and Italy with vegetative wheat.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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