Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Rising temperatures and some precipitation going into December with a couple of storm systems for the U.S., good rain for Argentina, increasing wet season showers in central Brazil, and heavy rain for southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

WARMER WITH MOSTLY RAIN FOR MIDWEST

A system continues to move through the Midwest Friday with a batch of moderate to heavy precipitation. More showers will continue this weekend into early next week. It will be mostly rain, though some snow may mix in for a few areas. The precipitation will help to build soil moisture and ease the drought that remains. Temperatures will be more moderate for at least the first half of December and will rise well above normal by the middle of next week.

DRIER FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Warmer temperatures have melted off last week's snow in the Central and Southern Plains, building a little soil moisture for wheat. A storm system moved through Thursday with scattered showers as well. Some isolated showers will be possible through the weekend, but the region will be drier next week as temperatures rise well above normal.

WARM AND LARGELY DRY FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Outside of a small clipper bringing some light showers to the Northern Plains on Monday, it continues to be dry with the activity either staying north or south through most of next week. Precipitation may move in with a system late next week, though. Temperatures will be warmer compared to normal for the next couple of weeks.

SOUTHERN DELTA GETTING SOME MORE RAIN

A storm system brought scattered showers and thunderstorms through the Delta on Thursday and the south may stay active into Saturday as well. Heavier rain will help to ease drought conditions in some areas, though there is a long way to go. Precipitation farther north will help to increase water levels on the Mississippi River at least a little bit, but the river system needs more consistent precipitation.

INCREASING RAINFALL FOR BRAZIL

Scattered showers will increase in central Brazil this weekend and continue into next week, beneficial for soybean development. The southern state of Rio Grande do Sul has seen a bit of a break in the excessive rain over the last several days, beneficial to help soils drain. A front moving through this weekend could bring some heavier rain back through, and the forecast continues to call for above-normal rainfall through December in this region.

MORE SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

A pair of fronts have brought widespread showers to Argentina the last couple of days and one of those continues to do so into the weekend, bringing good rainfall to much of the country's growing regions. Additional showers may continue in some areas through next week, but it will be largely drier until next weekend when another system moves through with good rainfall potential. Overall, conditions are mostly favorable for corn and soybean planting and development.

STILL WET, COLDER IN MUCH OF EUROPE

The pattern stays active across Europe for the next week but also includes Spain and other southern growing areas that are running precipitation deficits, beneficial for vegetative winter wheat. Colder temperatures across the north will be pushing wheat into dormancy and the precipitation will be falling as snow there.

WHEAT GOING DORMANT IN GOOD CONDITION IN BLACK SEA

Frequent precipitation over the last several weeks has brought a much better situation for winter wheat in the Black Sea region, which is going dormant in mostly good condition. Far southern areas are a little warmer and may still benefit from the active weather to put down some good roots for the next week or so before going dormant as well. The 2024 crop is in very good shape.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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