DTN Ag Weather Brief
DTN Ag Weather Brief
There is a trough in the Southern Plains with another in northwest Canada. A ridge is developing behind them in the West. The Canadian trough will deepen in Hudson Bay this week while most of the U.S. trough will shift east. Part of it will be left behind around northern Mexico this week. A trough will move through the western ridge late week and will deepen in the Southwest. It will force the Mexican trough through the East late this week.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:The pattern will be somewhat complicated this weekend through next week, but in general looks like a ridge in western Canada with a trough in Hudson Bay and parts of the U.S.
The U.S. and European models show the same sort of pattern, but are different in the details. I will use a blend, but favor the European.
For the outlook period, the upper-level patter supports a warmer West and cooler Central and East, though there could be some variation in that. A cold front may be active across the South and Southeast, though models disagree to what extent.
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:HIGH SUN...90 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX
LOW SUN...9 AT ALAMOSA, CO AND MOUNT WASHINGTON, NH
24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT SUNDAY...OKLAHOMA CITY, OK 0.76 INCHES
US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:There is a trough in the Southern Plains with another in northwest Canada. A ridge is developing behind them in the West. The Canadian trough will deepen in Hudson Bay this week while most of the U.S. trough will shift east. Part of it will be left behind around northern Mexico this week. A trough will move through the western ridge late week and will deepen in the Southwest. It will force the Mexican trough through the East late this week. The pattern will be somewhat complicated this weekend through next week, but in general looks like a ridge in western Canada with a trough in Hudson Bay and parts of the U.S.
The U.S. and European models show the same sort of pattern, but are different in the details. I will use a blend, but favor the European.
For the outlook period, the upper-level patter supports a warmer West and cooler Central and East, though there could be some variation in that. A cold front may be active across the South and Southeast, though models disagree to what extent.
MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system tracking to the south was close enough to get some rain into South Dakota on Sunday. Some showers may continue over the eastern Dakotas on Monday, but it is looking drier, even with a cold front sagging south on Wednesday. That front could bring some highland snow and a sharp drop in temperatures below normal. A reinforcing shot of colder air is possible this weekend into next week.
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A system moved into the region on Sunday and brought widespread showers. Those showers largely missed drier western wheat areas, unfavorable for wheat there. But other eastern areas saw good rainfall. The rain pulls out on Monday. Another system may bring showers to southern areas late in the week and a cold front dropping south could bring highland snow and a burst of much colder air for the weekend into next week.
MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system brought showers into southwestern areas on Sunday with a system that will push northeast through much of the region early this week. A stronger cold front will move through later this week with a burst of colder air. Models disagree if the front will produce precipitation. Any precipitation now will delay the remaining harvest and fieldwork but increase soil moisture for winter wheat before it goes dormant.
DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): It was dry over the weekend. A system will move through Monday with scattered showers that will produce limited benefits to drought and severe weather potential across the south. The rain farther north will help with water levels on the Mississippi River, but it is still very dry and the river will run low for a while yet.
BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain from the south started to work northward this weekend. Those showers will be more typical of the wet season rains in central Brazil all week long. Deficits are large here and will take more than a week's worth of normal rainfall to turn around. Showers do look to become more isolated for next week. Another round of heavier rain will move back into southern Brazil midweek. Any breaks from the wet pattern are still looking to be short across the south, also unfavorable for developing corn and soybeans.
ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Showers were more limited this weekend.
A front will move through Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered showers but then be drier again until next week. Though the dryness is not welcome, soil conditions are more favorable than they were earlier this year or in previous years, a good turn-around in conditions. As long as the drier weather does not last too long, the overall favorable conditions continue.
EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers continued over much of the continent again this weekend, keeping soil moisture high for most areas outside of Spain, where dryness is starting to creep in again. Showers continue across southern areas early this week while a system will go through the northeast later this week. A more active pattern across the continent continues next week. Some areas could use a break to allow for more planting and sunlight for establishment, but conditions continue to be overall very favorable for winter wheat establishment.
BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A system moved through with scattered showers this weekend, which included snow in some areas. Colder air will continue to be more common than not, edging winter wheat toward dormancy but in mostly good condition.
CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It was mostly dry over the weekend. A system will move through midweek with a burst of colder air again as winter wheat and canola edge toward dormancy in mostly good condition. Winter precipitation will be important for building up irrigation come spring time.
AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers fell over eastern areas over the weekend, helping to ease extremely dry conditions in a lot of this part of the country. It is too late for wheat and canola, but will help cotton and sorghum. These showers continue all this week.
EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)
Summary:
West: Isolated showers southwest. Temperatures above to well above normal.
East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.
Forecast:
West: Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday.
Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, below normal Friday.
East: Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday.
Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday.
6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday.
Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures below normal Saturday-Wednesday.
Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)
Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.
Forecast: Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers south Thursday. Scattered snow west Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, above normal north and below normal south Wednesday-Thursday, below normal Friday.
6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.
Temperatures below normal Saturday-Wednesday.
Brazil Soybeans and Corn...
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...
Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.
Forecast: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday, north Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday.
Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...
Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.
Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.
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