Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A storm system moving into the Plains this weekend, good rain for Argentina, heavy rain in southern Brazil and a return of rain to central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

CONTINUED WARMTH FOR MIDWEST

A front moving through the Midwest Thursday and Friday will bring some rain to eastern areas while bringing a brief shot of cooler air as well. But a system moving through early next week would be more likely to spread precipitation across the region and temperatures are forecast to fall more significantly thereafter.

SYSTEM COMING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND

Most of the Central and Southern Plains will stay dry even though a cold front will drop into the region Thursday and Friday. A system will move out of the Southwest and into the region this weekend, bringing scattered showers to much of the region and helping winter wheat. Cold temperatures will follow the system, though, which could be significant. Models are still trying to decide that fate.

GOOD HARVEST WEATHER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

It will be windy in the Northern Plains Thursday as a cold front moves through the region. A system will track to the south this weekend but could spread precipitation into the region, which may be a wintry mix in some areas. Cooler temperatures will follow it next week, perhaps significantly so.

DRY AGAIN FOR DELTA

A system in the Gulf produced showers for southern areas of the Delta recently, which may ease drought a little. More rain is needed farther north to keep the Mississippi River from falling back toward the record lows seen in October, which may occur this weekend and early next week with a system moving through.

CENTRAL BRAZIL GETTING WETTER

Heavy rain continues over southern Brazil while central Brazil has been very dry with temperatures near or above 100 F for about a week. The same pattern continues for the next few days, which is unfavorable for most areas. Dryness and heat in the central will continue to overly stress developing soybeans and cause a need for replanting while wetness across the south will cause flooding and associated issues for developing corn and soybeans. The pattern will start to change this weekend as a system in the south shifts into central states. This will cause more typical wet season showers in central Brazil, though they may not be long-lasting. Heavy rain is still forecast to occur at times in the south.

FAVORABLE SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR ARGENTINA

Scattered showers will move through Argentina over the next few weeks, bringing decent rainfall to much of the country's growing areas. The country is still recovering from drought and northwestern growing areas still have larger deficits. Still, most of the country has seen a positive turnaround in growing conditions in recent weeks.

WAVES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR EUROPE

The constant bombardment of an incredibly active pattern across Europe continues into early next week. The pattern may change a bit next week with a focus farther north and in the Mediterranean, which would include cooler temperatures as well. If so, that would put some northern areas into dormancy. Most areas are in good shape for soil moisture, with some areas of excess. Smaller areas of limited soil moisture are found in Spain and the far southeast, but that is not a large area of the continent.

WARMTH AND OCCASIONAL RAIN FOR THE BLACK SEA

Areas of showers continue to move through the Black Sea region at times. Many areas have seen good precipitation over the last few weeks, which has improved conditions for winter wheat establishment. Warm temperatures have allowed much of the region to continue developing roots and extended the season. Some cooler temperatures are forecast this weekend, but crops are likely to stay active for a while yet, especially across the south.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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