DTN Ag Weather Brief
DTN Ag Weather Brief
There is a ridge over the Central U.S. with a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, more in western Canada, and a larger trough off the West Coast. The disturbances in Canada will spread east this week, but the ridge will keep temperatures warm most of the week.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:The western trough will finally shift eastward this weekend and next week while a ridge builds up in the West behind it. A trough is likely to head into the West later next week.
The U.S. and European models show the same sort of pattern, but are different in the details. I will use a blend, but favor the European.
For the outlook period, temperatures will be above normal for most areas but cooler in the East on Monday. A system will continue through the Eastern U.S. early next week with temperatures falling behind it east of the Rockies.
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:HIGH TUE...89 AT PHOENIX, AZ
LOW TUE...6 AT ANGEL FIRE, NM AND DANIEL, WY
24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT TUESDAY...ST. PETERSBURG, FL 0.90 INCHES
US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:There is a ridge over the Central U.S. with a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, more in western Canada, and a larger trough off the West Coast. The disturbances in Canada will spread east this week, but the ridge will keep temperatures warm most of the week. The western trough will finally shift eastward this weekend and next week while a ridge builds up in the West behind it. A trough is likely to head into the West later next week.
The U.S. and European models show the same sort of pattern, but are different in the details. I will use a blend, but favor the European.
For the outlook period, temperatures will be above normal for most areas but cooler in the East on Monday. A system will continue through the Eastern U.S.
early next week with temperatures falling behind it east of the Rockies.
MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Warmer and drier conditions continue for most of the week, favoring the remaining harvest and fieldwork. A system is likely to track to the south this weekend, but could spread precipitation into the region, which may be a wintry mix in some areas. Cooler temperatures will follow it next week.
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Most areas will stay dry even though a cold front will drop into the region later this week. A system is likely to move out of the Southwest and into the region this weekend, which should bring scattered showers to much of the region, helping winter wheat.
MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Warm temperatures and dry conditions should lead to good conditions for the remaining harvest and fieldwork for the next couple of days. A front moving through Friday could bring rain to eastern areas while bringing a brief shot of some cooler air as well. But a system moving through early next week would be more likely to spread precipitation across the region and temperatures are forecast to fall more significantly thereafter.
DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A system in the Gulf produced showers for southern areas the last few days, which may ease drought a little. More rain is needed farther north to keep the Mississippi River from falling back toward the record lows seen in October, which may occur this weekend and early next week with a system moving through.
BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain continues over southern areas while central areas have been very dry with temperatures near or above 100 F. The same pattern continues the next few days, which is unfavorable for most areas.
Dryness and heat in the Central will continue to overly stress developing soybeans and cause a need for replanting while wetness across the south will cause flooding and associated issues for developing corn and soybeans. The pattern will start to change this weekend as a system in the south shifts into central states. This will cause more typical wet season showers in central Brazil, though they may not be long-lasting. Heavy rain is still forecast to occur at times in the south.
ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers will move through the country over the next couple of weeks, bringing decent rainfall to much of the country's growing areas. The country is still recovering from drought and northwestern growing areas still have larger deficits, but most of the country has seen a positive turnaround in growing conditions in recent weeks.
EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): The constant bombardment of an incredibly active pattern across the continent continues this week. The pattern may change a bit next week with a focus farther north and in the Mediterranean, which would include cooler temperatures as well. If so, that would put some northern areas into dormancy. Most areas are in good shape for soil moisture, with some areas of excess. Smaller areas of limited soil moisture are found in Spain and the far southeast, but that is not a large area of the continent.
BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Areas of showers continue to move through the region at times. Many areas have seen good precipitation over the last few weeks, which has improved conditions for winter wheat establishment. Warm temperatures have allowed much of the region to continue developing roots and extended the season. Some cooler temperatures are forecast this weekend, but crops are likely to stay active for a while yet.
CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It was cold for central and northeastern areas this weekend, making it difficult to finish corn and soybean harvest or other fieldwork and pushing some of the winter wheat and canola crops toward or into dormancy, especially across the north. Temperatures are milder this week with some showers that may keep fieldwork slow, but the warmth is likely to be brief with cooler temperatures again next week. Most of the wheat and canola crops are in good shape heading into winter.
AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Showers will continue sporadically the next few days, with most areas seeing little or none. Wheat and canola harvest should find mostly good conditions. Showers may increase across the East this weekend into next week, which would be helpful for cotton and sorghum planting and early development, but dry soils are still a large concern for these crops.
EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)
Summary:
West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.
East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.
Forecast:
West: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.
East: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.
6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday.
Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)
Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.
Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday night-Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.
6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Friday.
Brazil Soybeans and Corn...
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...
Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.
Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday.
Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...
Summary: Spotty showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.
Forecast: Spotty showers through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday.
Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.
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