USDA Cattle on Feed Report Preview

OMAHA (DTN) -- Cattle placement data will continue to be the focus of the upcoming Oct. 1 Cattle on Feed report, which will be released Friday afternoon. Early estimates are looking for a 101% placement number, but there is uncertainty about this number among survey participants.

Cattle on feed estimates point to a 101% placement level in September. But the biggest uncertainty comes from the wide range of expectations in the survey results. The estimate ranges are from 95.9%-104.8% of year-ago levels. The near-10-percentage-point range between low and high estimates is far from the 1- to 2-point estimate range in both on-feed numbers and marketing numbers. This range represents a 200,000-head potential swing in overall placement levels, which could continue to disrupt the feeder cattle market if placements end up on either end of this range. One of the biggest uncertainties that market traders and analysts are trying to measure is just how quickly feeder cattle placements have moved into feedyards this year. In 2022, the largest number of cattle placed was in August, while in 2021, the largest placements were in October. Feeder cattle futures have already started to make some pre-market adjustments, which could keep prices unsettled through the end of the week.

Cattle on feed numbers are expected to garner little interest Friday, with the range of analysts' estimates remaining pretty tight, while overall on-feed numbers are estimated at 99.7% of year-ago levels. A deviation from this would be a moderate surprise and could spark some moderate market shifts early next week. But for now, traders are unlikely to focus on pre-report adjustments. Cattle marketed in September are projected at 90.4% of year-ago levels. Although marketings are running below 2022 levels, this is not likely to change market direction at this point.

USDA will release its Oct. 1 Cattle on Feed at 2 p.m. CDT on Friday.

	USDA Actual	Average Estimate	Range
On Feed Oct. 1		99.7%	99.0-100.3%
Placed in September		101.0%	95.9-104.8%
Marketed in September		90.4%	89.5-91.5%

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