Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A risk of widespread frost in the Corn Belt, dryness in Argentina and heavy rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

RISK OF FROST FOR MIDWEST

A front is expected to move across the Midwest through Friday with widespread showers. A second front will move through over the next few days with more isolated showers and much colder air. Temperatures will fall dramatically and there is potential for frost this weekend, especially across the north. Some isolated showers may continue into the weekend and possibly early next week in the cooler air over the Great Lakes. Temperatures will slowly moderate next week. Any fieldwork delays due to rainfall are likely to be short again, but we'll watch for another potential storm system late next week.

SHOT OF COLD FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front brought widespread showers and thunderstorms to the Central and Southern Plains over the last couple of days, including some severe weather. Showers continue in Texas for early Thursday. Colder temperatures are filling in behind the front and should produce some frosts Friday through Sunday mornings across northern areas. Temperatures will moderate next week. Drier weather that follows should allow equipment to move back into the region rather quickly. Soil moisture increases for winter wheat establishment should be favorable as well. The next system may move through in the back half of next week with scattered showers.

FROSTS LIKELY FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Cold air is moving into the Northern Plains behind a front and will produce a few showers into Friday. Widespread frost will be possible Friday and Saturday which could put an end to any immature crops. The cold should only be temporary temperatures moderate next week. Recent showers will cause some delays to harvest this week, but the dryness that follows should allow equipment back out into the fields after a short period.

SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA

A front will move through Thursday into early Friday but showers are limited. Drought continues to build in the area, but conditions are good for harvest.

MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, though they may be isolated at times. A front will continue over southern areas through the weekend with bouts of heavy rain again. Southern areas are dealing with too much rainfall, which has caused flooding and the need to replant early corn in some instances. Other than those issues, increased rainfall is favorable for early establishment. Even the below-normal rainfall in central Brazil should be sufficient for continued planting and establishment.

DRY AGAIN IN ARGENTINA

It continues to be dry in Argentina. While planting conditions are good for corn, establishment conditions are not, and filling wheat is in need of rain as well. Dry weather forecast that follows through early next week is not favorable either. The next system is forecast to move through in the middle of next week, but forecasts are not favoring the widespread heavy rain that is needed just yet.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN EUROPE

Rounds of isolated showers will move through northern and eastern Europe through early next week. Otherwise, drier and warmer weather should be expected, favorable for fieldwork, but decreasing soil moisture on the continent for winter wheat establishment. The forecast brings in more widespread showers but not until the end of next week.

SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR THE BLACK SEA

A couple of systems will move through the Black Sea region early next week. Mostly light rain is forecast, but there could be some enhancement in some key areas this weekend. Soil moisture continues to fall in winter wheat areas, and the rain is sorely needed before dormancy sets in. The region typically has the month of October for establishment before winter freezes in November from north to south.

AUSTRALIA GOING DRY AGAIN

A stronger cold front brought significant rainfall to southeastern areas of Australia this week, along with a burst of colder air that should ease stress from recent heat. Other areas did not have much precipitation out of the system, and largely dry soils are still largely unfavorable for filling winter wheat and canola. Drier conditions are forecast for next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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