DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East and a trough in the West. There is another trough moving into western Canada and a ridge in the eastern Pacific. The pattern will be a bit progressive as all of the features will move west to east this week..

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The western ridge will settle a little more in Canada next week while another trough builds in the North Pacific and tries to send pieces of energy underneath it through the U.S.

The U.S. and European models are similar so I will use a blend.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be rising in the West over the weekend and spread east next week. It should be largely dry east of the Rockies through the middle of next week, but showers will return to the West.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...102 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW SUN...21 AT 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF KIRK, OR

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT SUNDAY...DAYTONA BEACH, FL 1.78 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the East and a trough in the West. There is another trough moving into western Canada and a ridge in the eastern Pacific. The pattern will be a bit progressive as all of the features will move west to east this week. The western ridge will settle a little more in Canada next week while another trough builds in the North Pacific and tries to send pieces of energy underneath it through the U.S.

The U.S. and European models are similar so I will use a blend.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be rising in the West over the weekend and spread east next week. It should be largely dry east of the Rockies through the middle of next week, but showers will return to the West.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers developed with a front stalled in the area over the weekend. A system will form along the front with scattered showers through Tuesday. Much colder air will move through behind the system and may bring a few showers as well, but will only be temporary as a ridge brings in more warmth next week. Showers will cause some delays to harvest this week, but dryness that follows should allow equipment to roll shortly.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Outside of a few spotty showers, it was dry over the weekend, allowing harvest and winter wheat planting to run smoothly. A front will push through the region Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms and potential for severe weather and heavy rain. Afterward, cooler temperatures will move in, but will be temporary as temperatures rise next week. Drier weather that follows should allow equipment to move back into the region rather quickly. Soil moisture increases for winter wheat establishment should be favorable as well.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers went through northwest areas, but most areas saw heat and dryness building over the weekend, allowing for equipment to get out into the fields after last week's rain. Another front will move through Tuesday night through Friday with widespread showers.

Temperatures will fall dramatically behind the front. Some isolated showers may continue into the weekend in the cooler air over the Great Lakes. Dryness and warmth should return next week. Any delays due to rainfall are likely to be short again.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): It was dry over the weekend, allowing for rapid harvest in the dry soils. A front will move through late this week but showers are forecast to be limited. Drought continues to build in the area.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, though they may continue to be isolated. A front will move into southern areas on Tuesday night and bring areas of heavy rain. That front will move into central areas for late in the week, enhancing showers there. Another burst of rain is forecast for southern Brazil this weekend, which may be heavy yet again. Southern areas are dealing with too much rainfall, which has caused flooding and the need to replant early corn in some instances. Other than those issues, increased rainfall is favorable for early establishment.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): It was dry over the weekend and the region is in need of more rainfall. A front will move through on Tuesday, but showers are likely to be widely scattered and miss some of the important cropland that is in need. While planting conditions are good, establishment conditions are not. Dry weather that is forecast to follow for the next week is not favorable either.

EUROPE (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Some showers went through northern areas over the weekend. More isolated showers are forecast early this week across the north, then over the northeast later this week. Otherwise, drier and warmer weather should be expected, favorable for fieldwork, but decreasing soil moisture on the continent. The forecast for next week may be more favorable.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): It was largely dry over winter wheat areas over the weekend. Some isolated showers will move through early this week with a front, but are forecast to be very light and spotty. Soil moisture continues to fall in this area, unfavorable for wheat establishment. Showers may move through later this week and weekend with a system moving through, but it will also bring a burst of cold temperatures through, which may produce some frosts.

The region typically has the month of October for establishment before winter freezes come in November from north to south.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Occasional showers moved through central and northeastern areas over the weekend, which may have been a hindrance to early corn and soybean harvest. It was favorable for winter wheat and canola establishment, however. It will be largely dry for the next two weeks in these areas, which will improve harvest conditions. Establishment of winter crops should still have good soil moisture overall.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Well-above normal temperatures have been putting stress on filling wheat and canola as soil moisture continues to drop.

A stronger cold front will move through this week, breaking down the heat temporarily, and bringing significant rainfall to southeastern areas. Other areas will not have much precipitation out of the system, which is still largely unfavorable for filling winter wheat and canola.

INDIA (RICE/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Showers have increased in recent weeks, especially in eastern areas, reversing the drier trend in August that had put a lot of stress on developing crops and limited irrigation reserves. The monsoon starts to wind down this month, forcing producers to switch to irrigation, perhaps a bit early for winter crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday night-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

East: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers northeast Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Tuesday, near to well above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal south and above normal north Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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