Sept. 1 USDA Hogs and Pigs Report

By DTN Staff

This article was originally posted at 2:04 p.m. CDT on Thursday, Sept. 28. It was last updated with additional information at 2:42 p.m. CDT on Thursday, Sept. 28.

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OMAHA (DTN) -- United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on Sept. 1, 2023, was 74.3 million head. This was up slightly from Sept. 1, 2022, and up 2% from June 1, 2023, USDA NASS reported on Thursday.

Breeding inventory, at 6.08 million head, was down 1% from last year, and down 1% from the previous quarter.

Market hog inventory, at 68.2 million head, was up slightly from last year, and up 2% from last quarter.

The June-August 2023 pig crop, at 34.2 million head, was up slightly from 2022. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.95 million head, down 4% from 2022. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 48% of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 11.61 for the June-August period, compared to 11.13 last year.

United States hog producers intend to have 2.93 million sows farrow during the September-November 2023 quarter, down 5% from the actual farrowings during the same period one year earlier, and down 4% from the same period two years earlier. Intended farrowings for December 2023-February 2024, at 2.91 million sows, are down 1% from the same period one year earlier, and down slightly from the same period two years earlier.

The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 52% of the total United States hog inventory, up 2% from the previous year.

REVISIONS

All inventory and pig crop estimates for September 2022 through June 2023 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. The revision made to the June 2023 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.5%. A revision of 0.2% was made to the March 2023-May 2023 pig crop. A net revision of 1.0% was made to the March 2023 all hogs and pigs inventory. The net revision made to the December 2022-February 2023 pig crop was 1.5%.

DTN ANALYSIS

"Determining how the market will react to a report when revisions are made to past publications is always a tough call, but it's likely that, come Friday morning, traders will view Thursday's Sept. 1 Hogs and Pigs report as neutral at best," said DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart. "Yes, the September/November farrowings are down 5% from a year ago, but when you look at the number of hogs in the marketing-weight breakdown, the market isn't going to be short supply anytime soon.

"Truthfully, I expected that the immense financial hardship that the pork industry endured during late 2022 through 2023 would have had a greater effect on the market, especially on the number of sows kept back for breeding. But Thursday's report shared an industry outlook that maintains stability across all the divisions despite financial pressure and concerns over Prop 12."

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To view the full Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, visit https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

	2022	2023	2024	2023 as	2024 as
				percent of 2022	percent of 2023
	(1,000 head)	(1,000 head)		(%)
All Hogs Sept. 1	74,125	74,319		100%
Kept for Breeding	6,152	6,079		99%
Kept for Marketing	67,973	68,241		100%
	WEIGHT BREAKDOWN
Under 50 lbs.	21,893	21,913		100%
50-119 lbs.	19,677	19,756		100%
120-179 lbs.	14,013	14,110		101%
180 lbs. and over	12,390	12,463		101%
	FARROWINGS/INTENTIONS*
Jun-Aug	3,062	2,949		96%
Sep-Nov*	3,092	2,930		95%
Dec-Feb*	2,919	2,952	2,912	101%	99%
Jun-Aug Pig Crop	34,096	34,229		100%
	(number)	(number)		(%)
Jun-Aug Pigs Per Litter	11.13	11.61		104%

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