Commodities Market Impact Weather
Big Changes to Weather Models for Next Week
MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Warmth and recent rain in the U.S., but big changes to the forecast for next week, the on-time start to the wet season in central Brazil, and dryness issues in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.
DRIER AND WARMER FOR MIDWEST
A cutoff low-pressure system will continue to slowly move east through the eastern Midwest with scattered showers Thursday. Recent rainfall was heavy in spots, but with how dry soils have been, delays to harvest and winter wheat planting will likely be short unless more rain comes next week. Models are now suggesting that a cold front moves through with more widespread precipitation later next week, along with colder air.
ISOLATED SHOWERS, WARM FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
Isolated showers may start developing in the Central and Southern Plains and continue into next week with a trough digging into the West. Temperatures will feel more summer-like going into next week. A front should push eastward around the middle of next week and may bring some more widespread showers through the region, along with some cooler air. Showers would benefit winter wheat establishment where they occur but may delay harvest a bit.
FRONT ACTIVE IN NORTHERN PLAINS
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A front is stalling in the Northern Plains, which will produce scattered showers through the weekend and into next week. Recent and forecast rainfall may help the remaining areas of immature corn and soybeans but is hampering early harvest progress. Cooler temperatures may follow later next week.
DRY FOR THE DELTA
Isolated showers moved through over the last few days, but most areas stayed dry. Drier weather will continue for the next week, forcing crops to maturity and favoring harvest.
START TO WET SEASON FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL
A front has moved into central Brazil where it has stalled and started producing scattered showers for the start of the wet season. Planting conditions are very good outside of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, which has had issues with flooding. Another front moving in later next week could add to the heavy rain totals there.
ARGENTINA NEEDS MORE RAIN
An overall drier pattern continues in Argentina through the weekend which should promote planting, but soils are still in need of moisture coming off of last year's historic drought. El Nino favors the country with better rainfall during the season, however, and another front will move through early-mid next week with the promise of more showers.
MOSTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN EUROPE
Most areas of Europe have favorable soil moisture for winter wheat establishment. A front late this week may have a few showers in some areas across the north and east, another will move through early-mid next week with limited showers as well.
BLACK SEA TOO DRY
A front will push through the Black Sea region this weekend and early next week but is forecast with only limited showers. Soil moisture has been falling for winter wheat establishment, an unfavorable situation, and will need more moisture soon for good root establishment before dormancy. The region may get some help with a system later next week, though that is questionable.
AUSTRALIA MOSTLY HOT AND DRY
It should be largely dry in Australia through the weekend. Well-above-normal temperatures have been putting stress on filling wheat and canola as soil moisture continues to drop. A stronger cold front may move through next week, breaking down the heat temporarily, but is not forecast to produce much rainfall outside of the far southeast. The forecast is not favorable for wheat or canola.
John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com
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