USDA Cattle on Feed Report Preview
Placements Biggest Question Mark in Sept. 1 Cattle on Feed Report
OMAHA (DTN) -- Once again this month, the big line item to watch in Friday's Sept. 1 Cattle on Feed report is the placement data. Friday's report is expected to show a decrease in every category of the report, but the unknown of just how many feeders were placed in August remains the only wild card to be tamed.
There are two major reasons why some analysts believe placements will either be starkly lower (nearing that 92% mark) and why other analysts believe that placements won't be down as much and closer to the 98% threshold. Fewer cows contributing fewer calves to the marketplace yields fewer placements to be had and could mean that placements are down substantially. This argument deserves credence given the fact that placements were higher in both the June and July Cattle on Feed reports, as producers elected to market calves/feeders earlier to capitalize on strong prices. But, conversely, some analysts believe that placements will be down slightly as higher feeder cattle imports from Mexico and continued drought in the South could have placed more feeders than assumed. I personally believe that placements will be at the lower end of the range forecast.
Given the big advancements seen in the live cattle and feeder cattle markets last week, even if Friday's report is extremely bullish with placements coming in near 92% of a year ago, it's unlikely the report will bolster the market much, as traders are seeming somewhat exhausted from last week's push.
USDA will release its Sept. 1 Cattle on Feed at 2 p.m. CDT on Friday.
| USDA Actual | Average Estimate | Range | |
| On Feed Sept. 1 | 97.8% | 97.2-98.6% | |
| Placed in August | 94.8% | 92.0-98.1% | |
| Marketed in August | 94.4% | 92.2-94.7% |
ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com
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