Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain potential in the Plains and good planting weather in most of South America outside of southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST NEXT FEW DAYS

A front brought scattered showers through the Midwest over the weekend. Surprise areas of moderate-to-heavy amounts were noted in the middle of the region, which may help with moistening soils for winter wheat in some areas, but most likely delayed corn and soybean maturation and harvest instead. Additional clusters of showers and thunderstorms will be possible early this week across western areas of the region. A system will slowly move into or through the region Friday through the weekend, possibly even next week as well. Models are still determining that. Rain is largely too late to be a benefit and will delay early harvest plans in some areas instead.

SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front brought scattered showers through much of the Central and Southern Plains Friday and Saturday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the front half of the week, but a system moving into the region on Thursday will be slow to move east with multiple rounds of precipitation through Saturday before it leaves. Areas of heavy rain will be beneficial for winter wheat establishment, but not corn and soybean harvest.

RAIN COMING FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Dry conditions were noted in the Northern Plains over the weekend. A system will move into the region on Wednesday with scattered showers through the weekend. Some areas of heavy rain will be possible, which may have some benefit for late-filling corn and soybeans but will delay any remaining wheat harvest and early corn and soybean harvest.

DRY IN THE DELTA

It was mostly dry in the Delta over the weekend and should be for most of the week as well. A system will move into the region this weekend or early next week with potential for rain. Cotton is running out of time for rainfall to be helpful and the coming rains may be heavy enough to disrupt harvest progress for soybeans.

MORE HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Outside of a few isolated showers in central Brazil, it was dry over the weekend. A front will move into the south with periods of showers for most of the week and possibly into next week as well. It does not look as heavy as last week's forecast but could still produce flood damage and planting delays in Rio Grande do Sul. Early soybean planting should otherwise go well this week as restrictions lift.

FAVORABLE PLANTING WEATHER IN ARGENTINA

It was dry for most areas of Argentina over the weekend. A front has moved in and will produce areas of showers for northern areas at various points throughout the week. Southern areas may get in on some rainfall later this week and weekend. Recent and forecast rain is improving soil moisture for winter wheat and early corn planting.

RAIN SPREADING THROUGH EUROPE

Temperatures are above normal for most areas of Europe. A system moved into western areas this weekend and will sweep showers across much of the continent over the front half of the week. Stronger winds may bring some challenges and damage to northwestern areas as well. Another round of the system will move into western areas late this week and continue eastward for the weekend. Overall, soil moisture is adequate or improving for winter wheat planting and establishment, but rain is limiting summer grain harvest. Drier conditions will be possible next week.

BLACK SEA COULD USE MORE RAIN FOR WHEAT

It was dry in the Black Sea region over the weekend with increasing temperatures but no extreme heat. A front may bring light showers to western areas Tuesday and Wednesday. Otherwise, this week will be dry. Another front may bring showers to western areas this weekend but those also look light. Soil moisture has been falling as winter wheat is planted, but it is not critically dry yet. Still, conditions are trending the wrong way.

AUSTRALIA HOT AND DRY

It should be largely dry in Australia for the next week. Well-above normal temperatures have been putting stress on filling wheat and canola as soil moisture continues to slowly drop. Temperatures fall in eastern areas behind a mostly dry front later this week but are forecast to rise well above normal again after a few days. The forecast is not favorable for either crop.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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