DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in central Canada with a trough in the East and another in western Canada. The western trough will dig south through the U.S. over the next couple of days while the ridge builds in eastern Canada.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

We will see the trough shifting eastward this weekend but not make it very far, getting stuck in the South-Central and Southeast for next week. Another trough will drop down into the eastern Pacific this weekend and will attempt to send some energy eastward at the end of the month.

The U.S. and European models have differences on how to treat a storm system in the middle of the country this weekend and next week. I will use a blend.

For the outlook period, temperatures will largely be above-normal for the eastern half of the country, while being near normal behind a system that slowly pushes eastward to some degree next week. More likely than not, above-normal temperatures will quickly fill back into most areas east of the Rockies next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...108 AT TECOPA, CA, DEATH VALLEY, CA, AND STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA LOW SUN...17 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT SUNDAY...CHARLESTON, SC 2.75 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in central Canada with a trough in the East and another in western Canada. The western trough will dig south through the U.S. over the next couple of days while the ridge builds in eastern Canada. We will see the trough shifting eastward this weekend but not make it very far, getting stuck in the South-Central and Southeast for next week. Another trough will drop down into the eastern Pacific this weekend and will attempt to send some energy eastward at the end of the month.

The U.S. and European models have differences on how to treat a storm system in the middle of the country this weekend and next week. I will use a blend.

For the outlook period, temperatures will largely be above normal for the eastern half of the country, and near normal behind a system that slowly pushes eastward to some degree next week. More likely than not, above-normal temperatures will quickly fill back into most areas east of the Rockies next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry conditions were noted over the weekend. A system will move into the region on Wednesday with scattered showers through the weekend. Some areas of heavy rain will be possible, which may have some benefit for late-filling corn and soybeans, but will delay any remaining wheat harvest and early corn and soybean harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front brought scattered showers through much of the region Friday and Saturday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the front half of the week, but a system moving into the region on Thursday will be slow to move east with multiple rounds of precipitation through Saturday before it leaves. Areas of heavy rain will be beneficial for winter wheat establishment, but not corn and soybean harvest.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front brought scattered showers through the region over the weekend. Surprise areas of moderate to heavy amounts were noted in the middle of the region, which may help with moistening soils for winter wheat in some areas, but most likely delayed corn and soybean maturation and harvest instead. Additional clusters of showers and thunderstorms will be possible early this week across western areas of the region. A system will slowly move into or through the region Friday through the weekend, possibly even next week as well. Models are still determining that. Rain is largely too late to be a benefit and will delay early harvest plans in some areas instead.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): It was mostly dry over the weekend, and should be for most of the week as well. A system will move into the region this weekend or early next week with potential for rain. Cotton is running out of time for rainfall to be helpful and the coming rains may be heavy enough to disrupt harvest progress for soybeans.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Outside of a few isolated showers in central Brazil, it was dry over the weekend. A front will move into the south with periods of showers for most of the week and possibly into next week as well. It does not look as heavy as last week's forecast, which is less concerning for flood damage and planting delays outside of far southern Rio Grande do Sul. However, there could be some concerns there. Early soybean planting should otherwise go well this week as restrictions lift.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): It was dry for most areas over the weekend. A front has moved in and will produce areas of showers for northern areas at various points throughout the week. Southern areas may get in on some rainfall later this week and weekend. Recent and forecast rain is improving soil moisture for winter wheat and early corn planting.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Temperatures are above normal for most areas. A system moved into western areas this weekend and will sweep showers across much of the continent over the front half of the week. Stronger winds may bring some challenges and damage to northwestern areas as well. Another round of the system will move into western areas late this week and continue eastward for the weekend. Overall, soil moisture is adequate or improving for winter wheat planting and establishment, but rain is limiting summer grain harvest. Drier conditions will be possible next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): It was dry over the weekend with increasing temperatures but no extreme heat. A front may bring light showers to western areas Tuesday and Wednesday. Otherwise, this week will be dry. Another front may bring showers to western areas this weekend but also look light. Soil moisture has been falling as winter wheat is planted, but it is not critically dry yet. Still, conditions are trending the wrong way.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A front moved into central and northeast China over the weekend with scattered showers, which continue early this week. Recent showers have been frequent but mostly light, good enough for late-filling corn and soybeans as well as bringing some soil moisture for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It should be largely dry for the next week.

Well-above normal temperatures have been putting stress on filling wheat and canola as soil moisture continues to slowly drop. Temperatures fall in eastern areas behind a mostly dry front later this week, but are forecast to rise well above normal again after a few days. The forecast is not favorable for either crop.

INDIA (RICE/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): The country has had a disappointing monsoon season thus far with below-normal rainfall thanks to a building El Nino and a change in the pattern across the Indian Ocean. An upper-level low increased precipitation over the last couple of weeks, but not enough to fill reservoirs for irrigating wheat and rice over the winter into next spring once the monsoon shuts down later this month into October. Still, rainfall continues across much of the country outside of the far northwest.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

East: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday.

Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, mostly south.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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