Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued dry conditions for the Central U.S. after a round of intense heat and early rain for central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

END TO HEAT IN SIGHT, BUT STILL DRY FOR MIDWEST

Hot and dry conditions are largely in place across the Midwest for another day or two, though a stalled front across the north and east brought some heavier rainfall to Michigan and Ohio on Wednesday, and the setup is similar for Thursday. Heat will be most intense in the southwest and any built-up soil moisture has quickly been used up. The front will get pushed southward Friday and Saturday, offering relief from the heat, but not much in the way of rainfall. After another front moves through Monday and Tuesday with some isolated showers, above-normal temperatures are likely to build back into the region later next week. Though any showers will be welcome, the forecast is mainly stressful for filling corn and soybeans.

FRONT SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Hot and dry conditions continue for the next couple of days in the Central and Southern Plains, causing stress for filling corn and soybeans. The heat has sapped any built-up soil moisture this week. A front will sag south through the region Friday through the weekend, bringing milder temperatures and potential rainfall that would prove beneficial if it occurs. Another round of heat may build back in later next week.

MILD BUT LIMITED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A stalled front in the Northern Plains has kept a lid on the extreme heat and provided some limited showers this week. The front will get pushed southward on Friday. Another little system will follow on Sunday into early Monday with some isolated showers possible. Heat will return behind it in the middle of next week, though we should see a storm system late week or weekend bringing additional showers and milder temperatures. The back-and-forth conditions will limit stresses for filling corn and soybeans. Potential showers could delay the remaining wheat harvest in certain spots.

RAINFALL UNFAVORABLE FOR HARVEST IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Rainfall has been somewhat more frequent over the last week in the Canadian Prairies, which continues through Friday, with another front on Sunday possibly bringing some rain to eastern areas as well. Yet another system is forecast to move in later next week. Rainfall will be a hindrance to small grain and oilseed quality and harvest, but could benefit corn and soybeans in eastern areas as well as forages.

HEAT IN DELTA THROUGH THE WEEKEND

Hot and dry conditions continue in the Delta for the next few days. A front sagging south will move into the region this weekend, which will reduce the heat and potentially bring some showers as well. Any rainfall would be helpful for filling soybeans and cotton.

RAIN COMING EARLY TO CENTRAL BRAZIL

Brazil's southern wheat areas have been enjoying good growing conditions for most of the winter. Rains have been disruptive to the remaining safrinha corn harvest, however. Another front will move through the south over the next couple of days and get into central areas this weekend where showers are forecast to continue through next week, aided by another front moving north through the country late next week. The projected rain is well in advance of the start to the normal wet season and soybean planting window. Rains ahead of planting are useful for conditioning soils after a long dry season, but planting is restricted until mid-September for most areas. However, planting may start early due to the better soil conditions, a favorable indicator for both the soybean and coming safrinha corn crops.

WILD TEMPERATURE SWINGS CONTINUE IN ARGENTINA

Soil moisture remains sub-optimal in Argentina. Some rains have moved through at times, but not enough to reverse last season's drought. Cold temperatures flowing into the country may produce some frosts later this week and weekend, which may cause some damage to more-advanced wheat. Drier conditions will remain in place for the next week, with another front moving through with potential rain late next week. Temperatures have varied wildly due to strong fronts over the last couple of weeks and that looks to continue for early spring prior to planting. These fronts have been and continue to look limited in their rainfall potential, however.

FRONT MOVING INTO, GETTING STUCK IN EUROPE

Recent heat has increased moisture needs across Europe since last week. A system will bring a cold front through Friday through the weekend, which will cool down western areas. The front will get stuck in the east, with showers continuing through much of next week. Besides cooler temperatures, increased rainfall will be helpful for filling spring grains like corn. Stressful heat before the front could have a damaging effect in areas with limited soil moisture.

HOTTER AND LARGELY DRIER FOR UKRAINE

Hotter and drier conditions in the Black Sea region lately have been stressful for filling corn and sunflowers, but beneficial for the remaining winter wheat harvest. A front is bringing relief to temperatures in the east, but the west is expected to stay hot and eventually those temperatures will build eastward next week as well. Spotty showers will be possible at times, but conditions will be largely dry through early next week. A system will form off a stalled cold front to the west and bring showers into Ukraine for the second half of next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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