DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...123 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA AND STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW TUE...33 AT SOUTH LAKE TAHOE, CA AND OLD STATION, CA

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT TUESDAY...HARTFORD, CT 1.04 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge spreading through most of the U.S., and troughs in Canada.

By this weekend, the western trough should meet the eastern one and grow over eastern Canada and extend south into the northeastern U.S., tamping down some of the effects of the hot ridge across the U.S. While the ridge will remain in place across the Southeast through most of next week, the main axis will shift back into the West by next weekend. This ridge-west and trough-east look may continue through mid-August.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar with the big picture, but not on the details. I will use a blend.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be above normal across the West and South, and closer to normal in the Corn Belt. Some periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely to move through the Corn Belt, though the coverage and amounts are yet to be determined.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Areas of showers and thunderstorms continue this week with systems moving through Canada.

Temperatures will be hot for the next couple of days, but moderate with a cold front moving through on Friday. Additional rain may be possible this weekend and next week in a few waves, but that is uncertain. Any rainfall will be helpful for keeping temperatures down and providing needed moisture to crops in the region.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heat continues across the south through next week, with many days in the 90s and some 100-degree readings, exacerbating dryness issues in parts of the region. A front settling south through the region is more likely to bring showers and thunderstorms Friday through the weekend. Additional disturbances could bring showers through next week. Precipitation is most likely to occur over northern areas, which could help to lessen the effects of the heat there, and provide needed rainfall to some of the drought areas.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Heat will continue to spread through the region over the next few days. Most areas will see temperatures in the 90s for at least a few days while some 100s will be possible in the southwest. With drought in place, any rainfall will be welcome and potentially bring down temperatures at times, which looks to occur in sporadic fashion the next couple of days. A frontal passage should bring some more widespread rainfall for the weekend and less extreme temperatures for next week. Stress should be very high for this week, coming at a critical time for corn especially, but may relax next week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Temperatures are increasing well into the 90s through next week, causing stress to areas with more limited soil moisture. Some 100-degree readings will be possible at times. A front sagging south through the Corn Belt will likely stall to the north, though some limited showers may be possible across the north.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A storm system will spin through the region for the next few days, but models continue to favor northern areas with precipitation. Temperatures will fall behind a cold front moving through Wednesday. A secondary impulse may bring showers to southern areas that are in more desperate need this weekend, but that is still uncertain. Crops across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan are begging for rain while wheat and canola are in reproductive to filling stages, but are continuing to be plagued by drier conditions.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front will bring some showers for southern areas through Friday. The rain continues to favor developing wheat while it could hamper safrinha corn harvest progress some. Drier conditions follow next week with more favorable harvest conditions.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Soil moisture remains sub-optimal in Argentina. A front that moved through over the last several days only brought isolated rain to some areas and the forecast is dry for at least the next week. Colder temperatures may produce some frosts for developing wheat for the next few days before rising well above normal this weekend and continuing next week. The heat will cause rapid growth, which may be a concern for drier areas. Any frost that returns after the heatwave could cause more damage to wheat.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A trough over the north will continue to send pieces of energy through the continent for at least the next 10 days, favorable for spreading showers through much of the continent, but especially for the northern half. Periods of showers will come with milder temperatures, favorable for developing corn, but somewhat of a nuisance for harvest of winter wheat.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers and variable temperatures will move through the region over the next week, especially in Ukraine, an overall favorable pattern for developing corn and sunflowers. Showers may hinder the wheat harvest, however.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): The country looks to stay rather active for the next week with continued chances for rainfall. Typhoon Doksuri should make landfall over southern China on Friday, but track north into at least central sections of the country and possibly the northeast. Should it do so, it would bring tropical rainfall this weekend into next week. That could cause more flooding damage should the forecast track verify. Another typhoon is forecast to hit the central coast next week, which may add to the concerns.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system brought needed rainfall to Western Australia and may get into southeastern areas for Thursday and Friday. Any rainfall will be helpful as soil moisture continues to decline in a lot of areas. Despite a building El Nino, which favors heat and dryness in eastern Australia, that has yet to fully materialize. But the effects may be more pronounced later this year as the crop goes through reproductive and grain fill stages. Conditions continue to be mostly favorable thus far, however.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, variable Tuesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday, mostly north.

Temperatures above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Wednesday. Isolated showers north Thursday-Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, above normal north and below normal south Thursday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers south through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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