North Dakota Spring Wheat and Durum Tour

FARGO, N.D. (DTN) -- Like a patient taking an annual physical, the North Dakota spring wheat and durum crop will get a chance to open up and say "Ahh!!" this week as the Wheat Quality Council hosts its 2023 Spring Wheat and Durum Tour.

In this case, the "doctors" will be making house calls, collectively traveling thousands of miles across North Dakota and some into western Minnesota. Along the way, they will stop in hundreds of wheat fields and assess the crop's condition and quality, estimating overall yield potential while noting the presence and severity of insects and disease.

Nearly 60 participants are taking part in this year's tour, said Dave Green, Wheat Quality Council executive vice president and tour organizer, an increase from 2022.

"It's an unusual combination of people that you don't get assembled very often," said Green, noting the tour has its origins in the 1960s. "We'll have plant breeders, grain company folks, farmers, millers, end-users, government people and reporters all looking at the crop together."

The group assembles Monday, July 24, in Fargo, where each participant will be trained on how to calculate yield estimates. Then on Tuesday, July 25, they will hit the road for three consecutive days, traveling along eight predetermined routes that are followed year after year.

"We'll have 15 carloads this year, so nearly every route will have two vehicles carrying three to four people," Green explained. "Starting Tuesday morning, we'll go from Fargo on the various routes all the way to Bismarck. Wednesday, we'll cover the northwest and north-central part of the state, ending up in Devils Lake. Then on Thursday, we make our way back to Fargo, with a couple routes crossing the border into western Minnesota.

"We don't go into northern South Dakota anymore," he noted. "There's just not enough wheat there to look at. It's been replaced by corn and soybeans."

WHAT TO EXPECT

As drought conditions from 2022 persisted into 2023 throughout the southern and central Great Plains, the lack of precipitation proved to be a death knell for many winter wheat fields in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Nebraska. This condition only heighted concern for spring wheat to the north as the season began hot and dry, stunting the crop's growth and potentially yield.

In its most recent weekly wheat update released July 19, the North Dakota Wheat Commission reported the state's hard red spring wheat crop showed a slight improvement in condition for the week ended July 16. The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Progress and Condition Report released July 17 estimated that 48% of the North Dakota spring wheat crop was in good condition, up from 40% the previous week.

NASS rated the remainder of the crop as 4% very poor, 11% poor, 34% fair, and 3% excellent. An estimated 96% of spring wheat was jointed, which was 6% ahead of 2022 and only 1% less than the five-year average. Similarly, 79% of spring wheat was headed, just 4% behind the five-year average but well ahead of 59% last year. Coloring was at 18%, just 2% less than average.

While no widespread rain events had occurred the previous week, cooler temperatures had benefited the crop, the North Dakota Wheat Commission report stated. A large portion of the state needed precipitation, with it considered critical in some areas. Crop yield potential remained quite variable across the state. The U.S. Drought Monitor map released July 20 showed, while about 46% of North Dakota was experiencing no drought, 40% was abnormally dry and 14% was in moderate drought.

"Producers are concerned about the forecasted shift to hot temperatures during the week of July 24, which will add further stress to the most moisture-deficient areas," the report noted. "In addition, grasshopper pressures are higher than normal in many areas."

The durum crop in North Dakota held steady in crop ratings for the week ended July 16. USDA-NASS rated the crop as 3% very poor, 6% poor, 30% fair, 59% good and 2% excellent in the July 17 report. The North Dakota Wheat Commission report indicated precipitation was needed to hold crop conditions, especially with a forecasted ramp-up in temperatures to end the month of July.

The USDA Crop Production Report released July 12 forecast spring wheat production at 479 million bushels (mb), down 1% from 2022. Based on July 1 conditions, USDA estimated a yield of 45.2 bushels per harvested acre, down 1.0 bushel from last year. Durum production was forecast to decrease 16% to 54.0 mb with an average of 37.9 bushels per harvested acre, down 2.6 bushels from 2022.

Last year, the weighted average yields from the Wheat Quality Council's 2022 Spring Wheat and Durum Tour were 49.1 bushels per acre (bpa) for spring wheat and 39.0 bpa for durum. In its 2022 Crop Production Summary released in January 2023, USDA estimated North Dakota yields were 50.0 bpa and 40.0 bpa for spring wheat and durum, respectively, while national yields averaged 46.2 bpa for spring wheat and 40.5 bpa for durum.

"I can tell you that I don't fret about the current stage of the crop before I get up there and see it," Green said. "We hear that it is drier in the east than it is in the west. And so a lot of these marginal areas that struggle in a lot of years to produce a good crop seem to have a big crop this year.

"Most of the concerns in that eastern third of North Dakota and western Minnesota is where it got pretty hot and dry in May," he continued. "From what I hear from a few growers up there is the wheat is a little shorter than they would like it in a good year but that it's filling pretty well. So, it may not be a record crop, but it's still a good crop."

DTN Crops Editor Jason Jenkins is participating on this year's tour. Look for daily updates and final yield estimates on www.dtnpf.com and on Twitter.

Jason Jenkins can be reached at jason.jenkins@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @JasonJenkinsDTN

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