USDA June 1 Hogs and Pigs Report

By DTN Staff

This article was originally posted at 2:10 p.m. on Thursday, June 29. It was last updated with additional analysis at 2:22 p.m. on Thursday, June 29.

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OMAHA (DTN) -- United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on June 1, 2023, was 72.4 million head. This was up slightly from June 1, 2022, but down 1% from March 1, 2023, USDA NASS reported on Thursday.

Breeding inventory, at 6.15 million head, was down slightly from last year, but up 1% from the previous quarter.

Market hog inventory, at 66.2 million head, was up slightly from last year, but down 1% from last quarter.

The March-May 2023 pig crop, at 32.9 million head, was up 1% from 2022. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.90 million head, down 2% from 2022. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 48% of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 11.36 for the March-May period, compared to 11.00 last year.

United States hog producers intend to have 2.94 million sows farrow during the June-August 2023 quarter, down 4% from the actual farrowings during the same period one year earlier, and down 4% from the same period two years earlier. Intended farrowings for September-November 2023, at 2.95 million sows, are down 4% from the same period one year earlier, and down 3% from the same period two years earlier.

The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 51% of the total United States hog inventory, up 1% from the previous year.

REVISIONS

All inventory and pig crop estimates for June 2022 through March 2023 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. The revision made to the March 2023 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.3%. The net revision made to the December 2022 all hogs and pigs inventory was 2.4%. A net revision of 3.0% was made to the September 2022-November 2022 pig crop.

DTN ANALYSIS

"Truthfully, I was surprised to see Thursday's USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report as supply heavy as it was," said DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart. "Both the total hogs and pigs supply and the inventory of hogs kept for marketing saw a minute 1% decrease from last quarter, but based on what USDA just presented, the U.S. breeding inventory totaled 6.15 million head, which is 1% higher than the previous quarter.

"Can it really be? Can the U.S. breeding sow inventory be 1% higher than last quarter with feed prices as high as they are and with the Prop 12 implications looming? I have my serious doubts, as hog producers across the nation have been hard-pressed financially, and many will clearly tell you that they can't sustain their operations on these kinds of margins.

"The truth always comes to the surface with time. And I wouldn't be surprised to see a revision made on this report as, fundamentally, it's hard to believe that this type of growth could have been possible when, year over year, 2023's slaughter has been more aggressive and when, financially, the hog business has been incredibly strained. Thursday's report could have a negative effect on the market over the next couple of days as having an overabundance of supply comes into question."

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To view the full Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, visit https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

	2022	2023	2023 as percent of 2022
	(1,000 head)	(1,000 head)	(percent)
All Hogs June 1	72,314	72,394	100%
Kept for Breeding	6,168	6,146	100%
Kept for Marketing	66,146	66,249	100%
WEIGHT BREAKDOWN
Under 50 lbs.	20,903	20,939	100%
50-119 lbs.	18,691	18,748	100%
120-179 lbs.	13,827	13,863	100%
180 lbs. and over	12,725	12,699	100%
FARROWINGS/INTENTIONS*
March-May	2,967	2,896	98%
Jun-Aug *	3,062	2,942	96%
Sep-Nov *	3,092	2,953	96%
Mar-May Pig Crop	32,635	32,891	101%
	(number)	(number)	(percent)
Mar-May Pigs Per Litter	11.00	11.36	103%

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