DTN Oil Update
Oil Steadies on STEO Outlooks, Awaits Inventory Reports
SECAUCUS, N.J. (DTN) -- Crude futures edged higher Tuesday after back-to-back losses in two sessions as bullish winter price outlooks from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) outweighed pressure from recovering Middle East export flows.
In its October Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), published Tuesday, the EIA raised its Brent crude spot price forecast to $96.32 bbl for 2026, from the September STEO level of $91. It also projected a fourth-quarter average of $105 bbl for Brent, citing ongoing global inventory draws.
For U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the STEO forecast an average of $88.21 bbl in 2026, up from the $84.65 in September, although it expected a retreat to $79.74 by 2027.
In the near term, the EIA highlighted extreme ongoing distillate market tightness in its Winter Fuels Outlook, forecasting East Coast inventories to remain 20% to 30% below five-year seasonal averages.
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NYMEX WTI crude for November delivery edged up $0.01 to settle at $89.44 bbl, after falling to $86.86 during the session.
ICE Brent for December delivery moved up $0.26, or 0.26%, to close at $100.58 bbl, versus an intraday low of $97.06.
Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for November delivery climbed $0.0242, or 0.53%, to finish at $4.5694 gallon. It peaked at $4.5844 for the day, against a low of $4.3513.
RBOB for November advanced $0.0270, or 0.83%, to end the session at $3.2732 gallon. It hit an intraday high of $3.2964 versus a low of $3.1874.
By 3:05 p.m. EDT, the U.S. Dollar Index slid 0.333 points to 101.600 against a basket of currencies.
Early pressure stemmed from ship tracking estimates showing Persian Gulf crude exports recovered to 90% of pre-war levels via Saudi shuttle operations and pipeline bypasses.
Saudi Aramco also unexpectedly slashed November official selling prices to Asia earlier this week, signaling higher availability while stoking concerns over regional demand recovery.
Geopolitical risks linger, however, as Houthi forces continue to target energy infrastructure despite Yemeni government troops retaking key areas near the Bab al-Mandeb strait.
Market participants are focused on weekly U.S. inventory reports due from the American Petroleum Institute at 4:30 p.m. EDT Tuesday and the EIA on Wednesday, Oct. 7, at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
Analysts' consensus is that U.S. commercial crude stockpiles decreased by roughly 1.0 million to 1.5 million bbl for the week ended Oct. 2, while distillate balances dropped by 1.2 million bbl and gasoline supplies slid by 0.5 million bbl.
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