DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in eastern Canada with another in Texas with troughs across the Southeast and West. A channel has opened up through the Corn Belt for systems to travel. The trough in the West will do so this weekend while another does so later next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The pattern remains largely the same, allowing disturbances to move through the Corn Belt. Ridging will return to western Canada, which will heat up the Prairies.

The U.S. and European models continue to have issues with inconsistency in the details, but still show the same setup. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be variable for most of the country with systems moving through, though much hotter around Texas. A system will be moving through the East Coast mid next week with widespread showers. Another system should move through later next week in a similar path through the Corn Belt with widespread showers as well.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...116 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW THU...21 AT 14 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT THURSDAY...CHATTANOOGA, TN 2.01 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in eastern Canada with another in Texas with troughs across the Southeast and West. A channel has opened up through the Corn Belt for systems to travel. The trough in the West will do so this weekend while another does so later next week. Each may get caught up in the eastern U.S. for a time.

The western ridge may extend up through western Canada next week for a brief time.

The U.S. and European models continue to have issues with inconsistency in the details, but still show the same setup. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures will be variable for most of the country with systems moving through, though much hotter around Texas. A system will be moving through the East Coast mid-next week with widespread showers. Another system should move through later next week on a similar path through the Corn Belt with widespread showers as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A slow-moving front has provided daily showers and thunderstorms in the region all week and continues on Friday. A system goes through on Saturday and Sunday that is forecast to bring more widespread and heavier showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures should be more variable after the system moves through this weekend. Another system is forecast for next week that may bring widespread showers as well.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heat has built in over Texas and has expanded north at times this week. A system moves through this weekend, which will bottle the heat closer to Texas for next week. More rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast until that system moves through, and may even continue next week as well, most likely farther north. Conditions for developing corn and soybeans are dependent on rainfall frequency. Those areas with consistent rainfall are more able to withstand the heat stress.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heat and dryness have resulted in expanding drought conditions for most of the region this week. A system spinning over the Southeast is spreading some showers into eastern areas the next day or two. Following that, a system will move through with more widespread showers and thunderstorms this weekend into early next week, and another system late next week or weekend to do something similar. Showers are going to be scattered and miss some key areas. Areas missing out are seeing stress increase for both corn and soybeans, though not all areas are dealing with harsh conditions. The coming rainfall is forecast to only be a stop-gap in the poorer conditions, but the pattern does favor better chances for rain going into July. Whether or not the showers will be widespread or heavy enough it yet to be determined.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Recent precipitation has increased soil moisture and reduced concerns about building dryness in the region. Though less active for the next week, there will be some additional chances for showers and thunderstorms in the region. If the frequency too low, the concern over dryness will return.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Even after recent rainfall, soil moisture is still reported to be low across much of the region, leaving some areas in need of rainfall. Temperatures will be more pleasant for the next several days, keeping stresses down for those drier areas. A front going through early next week is the next best chance at widespread showers in the region, though it is likely to be lighter. Isolated showers continue in the region afterward for at least some chance of precipitation heading into July.

Temperatures may increase again next week which would return stressful concerns should rainfall be too sporadic.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front is bringing some showers to southern areas Friday, though many areas will stay dry. Increased rainfall is favoring any immature corn and vegetative wheat. Corn harvest is starting to pick up in the middle of the country, finding mostly favorable weather in which to do so.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Soil moisture is still sub-optimal in Argentina. A series of fronts will produce some showers for the next week, favorable for increasing soil moisture in some areas. Though, rains will be scattered enough to not hit all spots. Temperatures remain warm until the last of the series of fronts moves through early next week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A couple of impulses brought widespread and heavy showers to northern Europe this week, hitting key areas that have been very dry as of late. Another couple of systems are forecast to sweep through the continent next week, though one later next week may sit over northwestern Europe at the end of next week or weekend, favorable for continued rainfall in some key areas should it occur. Conditions are still largely favorable for developing corn and immature wheat.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Some drier spots have started to show up in some areas of the region, most notably in central Ukraine and the Volga Valley of western Russia. But conditions continue to be mostly favorable in the region.

The forecast is wetter for the next week with a slow-moving system moving through this weekend followed by another system later next week.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/OILSEEDS/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some isolated showers will linger through the weekend with another chance at widespread rainfall next week.

Though some areas are still dealing with flooding issues in wheat and canola areas, corn and soybean areas would find additional rainfall more favorable for development. Above-normal temperatures are exacerbating some of the dryness concerns in parts of central China.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system brought widespread showers to much of the wheat belt this week. The pattern may continue to be active next week as well. Conditions continue to be mostly favorable, benefiting wheat and canola establishment while El Nino continues to build in the Pacific. The event favors hotter and drier conditions in eastern Australia, which may start to impact the country's crops in spring when they emerge from semi-dormancy.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers northwest. Temperatures above normal.

East: Isolated showers southeast. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers north Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, near normal Monday-Tuesday.

East: Isolated showers east Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers west. Temperatures variable.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated showers north Tuesday. Temperatures variable Friday-Saturday, near to below normal north and above normal south Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers north Wednesday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Wednesday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers south Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

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