USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report

This article was originally posted at 3:04 p.m. CDT on Tuesday, June 20. It was last updated with additional information at 3:57 p.m. CDT on Tuesday, June 20.

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OMAHA (DTN) -- U.S. corn and soybean conditions fell for a second week in a row during the week ended Sunday, June 18, according to USDA NASS' weekly Crop Progress report released Tuesday. The report, which is normally released on Mondays, was delayed this week due to the Juneteenth holiday.

Already stressed crops could see more pressure for at least part of this week, as a couple of ridges of high pressure in the upper atmosphere are combining to bring widespread heat and dryness from Texas through the Great Lakes, according to DTN forecasts.

CORN

-- Crop progress: 96% of corn had emerged as of Sunday, up 3 percentage points from the previous week and 2 percentage points ahead of the five-year average.

-- Crop condition: Nationally, corn was rated 55% good to excellent, down 6 percentage points from 61% the previous week and below last year's rating at this time of 70%. The current rating is the lowest for the crop for this date since 1988. "The poor-to-very-poor portion of the crop rose 4 points to 12%," noted DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini. "Corn in Illinois was rated 36% good to excellent, down 12 points from last week. Michigan was also poor, at 32% good to excellent, while Iowa corn condition was rated 59% good to excellent."

SOYBEANS

-- Crop progress: 92% of soybeans were emerged as of Sunday, 11 percentage points ahead of both last year and the five-year average of 81%.

-- Crop condition: Soybeans were rated 54% good to excellent as of Sunday. That's 5 percentage points lower than last week's 59%, 14 points below 68% last year at this time, and the lowest good-to-excellent rating for the crop for this date since 1996. "As with corn, many of the larger drops in ratings came from Eastern states," Mantini said. "Illinois' crop was just 33% good to excellent, while Michigan was just 23% good to excellent with 32% of that crop poor to very poor. Iowa is at 56% good to excellent, and Nebraska's soybeans were rated 50% good to excellent."

WINTER WHEAT

-- Crop development: 94% of winter wheat was headed nationwide as of Sunday, up 5 percentage points from the previous week and 1 point ahead of the five-year average.

-- Harvest progress: 15% of the crop was harvested as of Sunday, up 7 points from the previous week but 5 points behind the five-year average pace of 20%. Texas was 62% harvested and Kansas was 8% complete, noted DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman.

-- Crop condition: Nationwide, winter wheat was rated 38% good to excellent, unchanged from the previous week and ahead of last year's rating at this time of 30% good to excellent.

SPRING WHEAT

-- Crop progress: 98% of spring wheat was emerged as of Sunday, up 8 percentage points from the previous week and 3 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 95%. Ten percent of spring wheat was headed, even with the five-year average.

-- Crop condition: USDA said 51% of the spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent as of June 18, down 9 percentage points from last week's 60%, and 8 points below the five-year average of 59%. "Four of the six states followed by USDA showed lower ratings on the week with double-digit declines in the Dakotas," Hultman said. "North Dakota crops are 55% good to excellent, while only 32% of crops in South Dakota are considered good to excellent."

WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

Hot, dry conditions will continue to stress crops across a large portion of the U.S. for at least part of this week, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"We've got a couple of ridges of high pressure in the upper atmosphere that are combining to bring heat and dryness to a lot of areas from Texas through the Great Lakes," Baranick said. "But it's not a completely terrible forecast. There is an upper-level low in the Southeast that will be producing showers and thunderstorms all week long. At times, that may bring a few showers into the southeastern Corn Belt, though nothing of much consequence. Cloud cover will help to limit the heat there, though. And in the Northern Plains, a cold front got stuck in the region and will be active for the entire week. We may see some severe weather, and that could extend down the Plains at times this week as well. But the rainfall in North Dakota is sorely needed for developing crops.

"Between the front in the Northern Plains and the system in the Southeast, it's going to be hot with temperatures regularly in the 90s Fahrenheit and, across Texas, well into the triple digits. But this won't last too terribly long, at least away from Texas.

"The two ridges will split apart by the weekend and set up a channel for storms to track, which so happens to be right across the heart of the Corn Belt. We'll see a system bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms over the weekend into early next week. Models are inconsistent with the coverage and intensity of the precipitation, but that's pretty typical. Models don't handle thunderstorms well, especially for several days in the future. But it does point to a good opportunity to spread meaningful rains to the driest parts of the Corn Belt and bring temperatures down a bit as well. This won't be the only opportunity either. The channel remains open next week, and models are bringing another system through with a similar storm track right now. We'll see if they can keep it up going into July."

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To view weekly crop progress reports issued by National Ag Statistics Service offices in individual states, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov/…. Look for the U.S. map in the "Find Data and Reports by" section and choose the state you wish to view in the drop-down menu. Then look for that state's "Crop Progress & Condition" report.

National Crop Progress Summary
	This	Last	Last	5-Year
	Week	Week	Year	Avg.
Corn Emerged	96	93	94	94
Soybeans Emerged	92	86	81	81
Cotton Planted	89	81	95	94
Cotton Squaring	19	11	21	21
Cotton Setting Bolls	3	NA	5	4
Winter Wheat Headed	94	89	90	93
Winter Wheat Harvested	15	8	23	20
Spring Wheat Emerged	98	90	87	95
Spring Wheat Headed	10	NA	2	10
Sorghum Planted	73	64	78	82
Sorghum Headed	15	NA	15	16
Barley Emerged	95	88	95	96
Barley Headed	7	NA	7	11
Oats Emerged	98	93	94	97
Oats Headed	58	45	41	48
Rice Emerged	99	94	98	97
Rice Headed	6	NA	5	4

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National Crop Condition Summary
(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)
	This Week						Last Week						Last Year
	VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E
Corn	3	9	33	47	8		2	6	31	51	10		1	5	24	57	13
Soybeans	3	9	34	47	7		2	7	32	51	8		1	5	26	58	10
Winter Wheat	11	18	33	32	6		12	19	31	32	6		23	20	27	25	5
Spring Wheat	2	10	37	48	3		1	6	33	56	4		1	5	35	52	7
Sorghum	2	5	33	53	7		2	6	35	49	8		5	10	39	43	3
Oats	7	9	39	42	3		6	6	35	49	4		11	9	20	53	7
Rice	-	1	29	56	14		-	3	30	54	13		-	1	27	58	14
Cotton	7	13	33	41	6		2	13	36	40	9		8	18	34	36	4

Anthony Greder can be reached at anthony.greder@dtn.com

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