Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Uncertainty about the weather pattern but overall lower coverage of precipitation in the Corn Belt and better rain for drier parts of the Canadian Prairies are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST; HEAT BUILDING

A disturbance may bring some showers to the eastern Midwest on Thursday and a system will move through over the weekend with the next chance for widespread showers. The forecast coverage and intensity are uncertain with this system, but western areas stand a better chance of showers than eastern areas. The uncertainty continues for next week, though temperatures are likely to be above normal -- significantly so in some areas -- which may stress out drier areas of the region. Those hotter and drier conditions next week may be short-lived with another system moving through late next week and weekend with an opportunity for more widespread rain.

CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Areas of showers and thunderstorms continue across parts of the Central and Southern Plains Thursday and Friday, which may include some significant severe weather, and a system will move through over the weekend with more showers and thunderstorms. Another system will try to move into the region later next week, but showers could pop up at times between the systems. Recent and forecast precipitation will do its best to ease drought conditions further, but that may not translate to improved conditions in all places.

ACTIVE PATTERN FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system is moving through the Northern Plains with scattered showers through Friday or Saturday but will miss many areas. The pattern remains active for the region, with another system stuck in the region with scattered showers next week. Some areas of the region are quite dry and need some good rainfall while others are doing just fine.

HEAVY RAIN, SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE DELTA

Several disturbances will continue to create heavy showers in the Delta into next week, increasing soil moisture and reducing concern about growing dryness. Although severe weather chances have increased, conditions are turning favorable for developing crops again.

STRONG SYSTEM IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES, MORE TO COME

A system moving through the Canadian Prairies has already brought heavy rain to Alberta on Wednesday and continues that Thursday. As the system moves eastward, precipitation will become more isolated. Additional systems are expected this weekend and next week as well, bringing more rain to the region. Temperatures will be variable and less consistently hot over the next ten days. Overall, conditions are either favorable or improving for most areas.

FAVORABLE RAIN FOR BRAZILIAN CORN

A front continues to slowly move through Brazil this week, spreading favorable showers to immature corn and vegetative wheat. Cold temperatures settling in behind the front would normally produce frosts, but that has been very limited due to cloud cover and somewhat elevated winds. If frosts have occurred this week, they have been limited to small spots in Mato Grosso do Sul. There may be some additional frosts in Parana over the weekend with the system moving away, but that chance is quite low. Another front will move through next week which should bring more showers.

COLD IN ARGENTINA

Soil moisture is still suboptimal in Argentina. Colder temperatures have settled in and have produced widespread areas of frosts and freezes this week, which will continue for the next few mornings. The colder temperatures will slow germination and growth for wheat. Another front will produce some showers as it moves through early next week, but those look sporadic and light. Another round of frosts will be possible for southern areas.

SHOWERS SPREADING THROUGH MORE OF EUROPE

An upper-level low over the eastern Mediterranean is bringing rainfall north into Poland for the next few days, offering to bring showers to drier areas in the northeast. A system will move through with widespread showers for northern areas this weekend and next week. Only small areas across the north are particularly dry and will see some beneficial rain next week. Spain, too, is still recovering from long-standing drought but will see some rain as well.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR THE BLACK SEA

A stalled front and an upper-level low will continue periods of showers for the Black Sea region into next week. Overall, conditions remain favorable for developing crops, but some areas are starting to get drier as showers miss. There is some potential for more widespread showers next week which may help that situation.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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