DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge moving into western Canada, a trough in the Northeast, weakness across the U.S, and another trough moving over the top of the ridge in northern Canada. The Canadian trough will dive down into the Great Lakes over the weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A more progressive pattern should cause more systems to move through the U.S. for the rest of June. Meanwhile, a ridge will develop over Mexico and bump up into Texas at the end of next week.

The U.S. and European models continue to have some differences in precipitation and temperatures, especially with consistency. I will use a blend but favor the GFS as it fits the upper-air pattern better.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be variable but around normal, which should continue through next weekend. Showers will be possible across the Southern Plains to the Southeast where a front may be stalled out.

Another system will move through the country late next week and weekend. There is uncertainty whether or not significant precipitation will occur over large areas, however.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...102 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW THU...22 AT FLAGSTAFF, AZ

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT THURSDAY...NEW ORLEANS, LA 0.84 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge moving into western Canada, a trough in the Northeast, weakness across the U.S, and another trough moving over the top of the ridge in northern Canada. The Canadian trough will dive down into the Great Lakes over the weekend. That will kick off a more progressive pattern that should cause more systems to move through the U.S. for the rest of June. Meanwhile, a ridge will develop over Mexico and bump up into Texas at the end of next week.

The U.S. and European models continue to have some differences in precipitation and temperatures, especially with consistency. I will use a blend but favor the GFS as it fits the upper-air pattern better.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be variable but around normal, which should continue through next weekend. Showers will be possible across the Southern Plains to the Southeast where a front may be stalled out.

Another system will move through the country late next week and weekend. There is uncertainty whether or not significant precipitation will occur over large areas, however.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will move through Friday and Saturday with scattered showers but clear the region out a bit and bring some briefly cooler temperatures through. Most areas should get a drink, however, favorable for developing crops. The pattern favors a system or two moving through next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Periods of showers will continue to develop across the region through the weekend. A front will move through over the weekend and with more showers. The front will get hung up across the south where heavy rain may occur early next week. Despite the changing pattern, drought reduction continues to be favored in the region.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will move through this weekend and wrap up into a low-pressure center across the east early next week. The system will bring widespread showers across the region, though not all areas will be hit. Still, it should be the best chances for widespread precipitation eastern areas have had in weeks. The pattern will favor more systems moving through afterward, though coverage and intensity of showers is up in the air.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Isolated showers have developed in the region and will continue into next week, which will help to stave off the drop in soil moisture that has been occurring. The coming pattern change may bring systems through more frequently. If showers do not come with them, though, the building dryness in the area would be a concern, especially south.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers will remain in the region for the next two weeks, as fronts move through with more regularity.

Showers may or may not be widespread with each system, however, and will no longer occur daily. Temperatures will remain above normal well into next week, which is starting to be a concern for areas that are drier. There is a better chance at a cooldown later next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Crop conditions are falling toward the end of the season due to extended dryness. A front will move into southern areas this weekend with scattered showers possible, which would be a benefit. The front may make it into central areas next week. If so, it would bring showers to areas in need. Cold temperatures that follow will need to be watched to see if frosts will occur. If they do, they could halt late-planted safrinha corn and slow development of wheat.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Soil moisture is still sub-optimal, but the recent run of showers have been helping in some spots. A stronger cold front will move through Friday and Saturday, which should spread frosts and freezes to parts of the region next week, slowing growth of wheat.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Showers have been frequent around the Mediterranean for the last couple of weeks, which have been helping drought areas and building soil moisture, but northern areas have been dry and are in need of some additional moisture. Isolated showers have spread into parts of Germany and Poland this week, but have been isolated. The pattern will change over the next few days, favoring France and the UK for better showers into next week, though Germany and Poland are likely to be drier until later next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Though soil moisture is mostly favorable across the region, some additional showers would be welcome, especially in the east.

Shower potential is forecast to increase over the weekend with a front moving through, and possibly next week if an upper low can develop on the tail end of the front.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/OILSEEDS/CORN/SOYBEANS): A low-pressure system continues to spin up over the northeast corn and soybean areas through the weekend, favorable for developing crops. Other areas including central China will be drier, unfavorable for crop development there.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers went through eastern areas this week, benefiting wheat and canola establishment while El Nino continues to take form in the Pacific. The event favors hotter and drier conditions in eastern Australia, which may start to impact the country's crops in spring when they emerge from semi-dormancy.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers south Saturday, north Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, below normal south and above normal north Sunday, near to well below normal Monday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, above normal north and near to below normal south Monday, near to well below normal Tuesday.

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