DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across Canada with plenty of weaknesses underneath it across the U.S., a pattern that continues into the weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A trough will form over eastern Canada and gradually shift westward next week as the ridge shifts westward and largely dissolves.

The U.S. and European models have some key differences in precipitation extension and temperatures next week. I will use a blend, but favor the American GFS, which tends to fit the upper-air pattern better.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be near to above normal for the West and Northern Plains with cooler conditions in the South and East. The temperature pattern will largely remain that way through next week.

Isolated to scattered showers will continue in the Plains but also spread through other areas of the country at times as well. A couple of fronts should bring more focused showers to areas of the Midwest, but models are having a tough time working out the details.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...101 AT CASTOLON RANGER STATION, TX

LOW TUE...26 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT TUESDAY...SPRINGFIELD, MO 0.94 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge across Canada with plenty of weaknesses underneath it across the U.S. This pattern will dominate the rest of this week but a trough will form over eastern Canada and gradually shift westward next week as the ridge shifts westward and largely dissolves.

The U.S. and European models have some key differences in precipitation extension and temperatures next week. I will use a blend, but favor the American GFS, which tends to fit the upper-air pattern better.

For the outlook period, temperatures Monday will be near to above normal for the West and Northern Plains with cooler conditions in the South and East.

The temperature pattern will largely remain that way through next week.

Isolated to scattered showers will continue in the Plains but also spread through other areas of the country at times. A couple of fronts should bring more focused showers to areas of the Midwest, but models are having a tough time working out the details.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Widespread showers continue throughout this week. The coverage and intensity may decrease over the weekend into next week, but most areas are seeing at least some rainfall to keep crop conditions favorable.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in clusters going into next week, though still focused more on western areas than in the east. If eastern areas continue to miss out, then drought may worsen there. But overall, drought reduction is occurring in the region.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures continue to be above-normal all week long while chances for showers are fairly limited. Showers will be around throughout the week though, and will help to stave off dryness where they hit. Areas that do not could see drought developing or increasing this week, especially in eastern areas. There is some concern over young plants, but drought is not deep or forecast to spread to too many areas just yet.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Soil moisture has been dropping, though is still in good shape across most of the region. Showers will continue to be limited throughout the week and may start to be a concern if the drier pattern continues deeper into June.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers have been very sporadic on where they have been hitting over the last week, but continue in the region going into next week. Coverage of showers will be different each day. Temperatures remain above normal, but not extremely so.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front is spreading some showers into south-central safrinha corn areas through Wednesday before showers largely dry up again. The showers should benefit some of the corn and wheat crops, though rains are fairly rare this time of year anyway with another week of dryness on tap after the showers dry up this week.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): More showers are expected to come in waves Friday into next week, increasing soil moisture in the country's primary growing areas and favoring winter wheat establishment.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Showers continue near the Mediterranean for the next week. Showers have been the most consistent near Spain, which has seen some favorable showers over the last couple of weeks, but is still in deep drought. Other areas have had some favorable dryness to allow for soil drainage and accelerated crop development. Areas to the north could use some more showers now though, as it has been drier for the last couple of weeks.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): An upper-low over the Black Sea and a couple of fronts in the region will continue to provide scattered showers for the next week. Eastern Ukraine has had the most favorable rainfall but much of the region has good soil moisture at the moment.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/OILSEEDS/CORN/SOYBEANS): Conditions are mostly favorable for early establishment of corn and soybeans and also for remaining filling wheat and canola due to some recent rainfall. Showers will be more limited for the rest of this week but a couple of systems moving through next week should catch most areas with at least a little rainfall.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Soil moisture has been dropping in a lot of areas. A couple of systems will move through over the next couple of weeks, which may provide some needed showers. The occurrence of El Nino in the next few weeks should have a detrimental effect on precipitation across eastern Australia, but conditions are mostly good for winter crop establishment for now. Dryness will be concerning once the winter crops start to awaken from semi-dormancy next spring.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday.

East: Isolated showers through Sunday, mostly west. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday-Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

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