DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across central Canada. Smaller disturbances and weaknesses in the upper levels can be found in the West and Southeast. This pattern will continue through next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

This pattern will continue through next week but we will see a trough redeveloping in eastern Canada next weekend, forecast to spread westward the following week.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to above normal for most of the country and should remain that way through next week.

Isolated to scattered showers continue in the Plains, spreading east into the Midwest and Delta as well.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...104 AT ELOY, AZ

LOW THU...19 AT CANADA CREEK RANCH, MI

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT THURSDAY...BILLINGS, MT AND LUBBOCK, TX 1.09 INCHES

U.S. OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge across central Canada. Smaller disturbances and weaknesses in the upper levels can be found in the West and Southeast. This pattern will continue through next week, but we will see a trough developing in eastern Canada next weekend, forecast to spread westward the following week.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to above normal for most of the country and should remain that way through next week. Isolated to scattered showers continue in the Plains, spreading east into the Midwest and Delta as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to continue through next week. Rain will be good for seed in the ground but may make it more difficult for those yet to plant to get done on time.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Areas of showers and thunderstorms have been developing throughout the week and have been heavy at times in the southwestern drought areas. More isolated to scattered showers will pop up through next week as well. The rainfall will not hit all areas, but may help to further reduce drought in some, and is beneficial for developing summer crops and forages.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Drier conditions are expected for most of the next week, which will help those with planting yet to do complete their tasks. Models are keen on developing isolated to scattered showers next week, especially late next week, breaking the drier stretch and easing concern over developing dryness.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Soil moisture continues to be mostly favorable for developing crops. Drier conditions have developed in the region. Shower potential returns next week. Overall conditions continue to be good across the region for developing crops for now.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers have developed in the region and are forecast to continue through next week, hitting most areas with at least some decent rainfall. Northern Alberta received some heavy rainfall earlier this week which may help them fight the wildfires and reduce drought. Showers may slow down seeding progress at times, but may also help to reduce the widespread drought.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front will move into southern areas this weekend with scattered showers and may progress into central safrinha corn areas next week. Any rain would be beneficial for corn and wheat. Though temperatures will drop behind the front, no frosts are forecast.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers continue in Argentina through Saturday, favorable for increasing soil moisture for wheat. Temperatures will fall below normal over the weekend and into next week, which may produce frosts and freezes, limiting growth for wheat.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Showers continue near the Mediterranean for the next week and have been the most consistent near Spain, which has seen some favorable showers lately, but is still in deep drought. Other areas are getting a chance to dry out and find some sun, favorable for crop development. Soil moisture is good for most of the continent.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): An upper-low over the Black Sea and a couple of fronts in the region will provide scattered showers for the next week, especially over wheat areas in eastern Ukraine. Soil moisture and warm temperatures are mostly favorable for crop development.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/OILSEEDS/CORN/SOYBEANS): A couple of fronts will move across northeast and central growing areas through the weekend with scattered showers, favorable for planting and early establishment of corn and soybeans and also for filling wheat and canola.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Soil moisture continues dropping in a lot of areas and will be concerning once the winter crops start to awake from semi-dormancy next spring. The occurrence of El Nino in the next few weeks should have a detrimental effect on precipitation across eastern Australia, but conditions are mostly good for winter crop establishment for now.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers west. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday, heavier west.

Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday, north Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers south Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

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