Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Rain for the U.S. over some of the drought areas followed by drier conditions, and a drier Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST THROUGH WEEKEND

A system in the Plains is bringing widespread showers to the Midwest through the weekend and may be significant for the drier areas in the west. Showers are disorganized, however, which will leave some areas dry. After this weekend, the region will dry out for next week. Temperatures will be warm until a front drops south through the region early next week, with cooler readings likely for eastern areas. Another front coming through later next week may bring another round of cooler temperatures and some showers.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS GETTING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

Waves of showers will continue to develop across the Central and Southern Plains through the weekend. Where they hit, they have been heavy, helping to ease drought in some of the driest areas of the country. Heavier rain is forecast across the south this weekend and showers could continue around Texas throughout next week. Another front is forecast to move through later next week with some showers, otherwise most areas will dry out next week.

WARM AND SHOWERY FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures continue to be near or above normal in the Northern Plains for the next week, favoring planting. Scattered showers will continue in waves through the weekend and could be heavy in spots, offering an increase in soil moisture for some of the dry areas. A front will move through later next week and may produce some showers, otherwise, the region will be in a drier trend next week.

DELTA GETTING MORE RAINFALL

Wetter soils in the Delta are mostly favorable for developing crops. Disorganized areas of showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Monday, which may or may not hit most areas. Either way, conditions continue to be mostly favorable for crops in the ground.

MILD TEMPERATURES IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Mild temperatures in the Canadian Prairies continue to favor planting progress. Disorganized showers have been occurring throughout the week. They have not been all that widespread but have dropped some significant rain where they have hit, especially in Alberta. A system to the south is bringing heavier showers to southeastern areas Friday and Saturday before the region goes drier for next week. Temperatures are forecast to stay mild to warm with a couple of weak fronts moving through next week. Some light showers may be possible with those fronts, but more widespread rain is needed.

DRY FOR BRAZILIAN CORN

Dry conditions are expected in Brazil for the next week but that is not abnormal for this time of year. Recent rains have only clipped southern safrinha corn areas while winter wheat areas have gotten a nice boost to soil moisture. Safrinha corn areas are starting to see soil moisture decline and would prefer more rain, though chances for that are low. Temperatures remain warm with no risk of frost.

UNFAVORABLE DRYNESS IN ARGENTINA

It remains dry in Argentina, unfavorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. More rain is needed. However, it should remain drier well into next week. A front may go through with showers late next week with scattered showers. Models are inconsistent with the amount of rain being forecast.

GOOD WEATHER FOR MOST OF EUROPE, SPAIN STILL DRY

Scattered showers will continue for the next week in Europe as an upper-level low meanders about the continent. Some parts of Spain may also see some showers, but the country continues to be very dry and in drought. Otherwise, good weather conditions continue for most crops. If anything, it may be a little too wet in some areas, and flooding is more of an issue than dryness.

QUIET IN THE BLACK SEA

Below-normal temperatures in the Black Sea region are moderating over the next few days. The run of good showers has taken a break, but soil moisture remains favorable for both wheat and newly planted corn. Scattered showers are forecast to return next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.