Commodities Market Impact Weather

Southern Plains Seeing Widespread Rain

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Slow snowmelt in the Northern Plains, cold air continuing in the Corn Belt, and rain in the southwestern Plains are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

MIDWEST STAYING COLDER

Cold air produced frosts and freezes in the Midwest over the last few mornings. Additional frosts continue this week. The cold air may cause damage to more-developed wheat and emergent corn and soybeans. Showers will be limited for most of the week, but a system will come through late week and weekend with widespread showers, mostly in the form of rain. Cooler temperatures will generally be in place into early May, unfavorable for planting and somewhat dangerous for additional frosts.

RAIN FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system will bring widespread showers to the drought areas of the Central and Southern Plains over the next few days, and could be substantial in some areas. That will help to reduce the impact of the drought, but will not make much of a dent in it. Additional showers could be possible late this week with another system. Wheat may not benefit from the rain too much due to poor conditions, but the increased soil moisture would favor corn and soybean planting and establishment.

SUSTAINED COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

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Below-normal temperatures continue in the Northern Plains for the next week, but will still be warm enough to continue melting the snowpack in the region. A system moving through later this week will bring in scattered showers, mostly in the form of rain despite the cooler temperatures. Rain should not be heavy enough to increase pressure on the ongoing flooding across the Red River by too much, but the colder temperatures will slow the drying process, limiting fieldwork and planting.

WETTER CONDITIONS IN THE DELTA

Scattered showers are expected in the Delta with a couple of systems this week. Many areas of the region are wet, limiting spring planting. Areas that have been able to plant will find good conditions for germination and early growth, though temperatures will be on the cooler end of normal through the end of the month. Northern areas may catch a frost as well.

COLD AIR CONTINUES FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Below-normal temperatures continue to limit melting of the heavy snowpack across the eastern Canadian Prairies. Western areas with less snow cover should see higher temperatures, but only slightly. The overall cooler nature will continue to limit or prohibit fieldwork and seeding across the east, but western areas may see a window opening. Some showers will move through with a system this week, being a mix of rain and snow, but should dry out afterward.

AT LEAST SOME RAIN FOR BRAZIL

A system will move through southern Brazil with some showers over the next few days while northern areas catch the end of isolated wet season showers at times. Overall, corn conditions are good for the time-being, with an eye toward additional rain for the next couple of weeks and potential frosts through June.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

A system brought some showers to northern Argentina over the last couple of days. Most of the agricultural areas missed out and conditions are favorable for harvesting a severely damaged crop. Winter wheat areas are in need of more moisture as the crop will start to be planted in the next week or two. A system moving through Sunday and Monday may provide some of that needed moisture.

GOOD WEATHER FOR MOST OF EUROPE

A couple of systems will spread showers through most of Europe over the next week. Spain is in drought and in need of more rain for both winter and summer crops, but will largely stay dry. Conditions across most of the rest of the continent are in good shape.

FAVORABLE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE BLACK SEA

More showers are expected through the Black Sea region with another system that will slowly move through this week. Some chilly air may move into Ukraine this weekend, but conditions continue to be mostly favorable for winter wheat development and corn planting.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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John Baranick