Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Slow snowmelt in the Northern Plains, cold air pouring into the Corn Belt, and potential for more rain in the southwestern Plains are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

MIDWEST TURNING COLDER

A system continues to move across the Midwest with showers through the weekend, including potential for more snow across the north. Another burst of cold air will move through as well, which is more likely to lead to widespread frosts and freezes that could be troublesome for winter wheat, and be unfavorable for corn and soybean planting. The cold should stick around through the end of April. The active pattern continues next week with several more days of rain chances, though the trends are farther south.

INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system that moved through the Plains this week brought some heavier showers to eastern areas but left the drought areas dry. Cold air filtering in behind the system will lead to widespread frosts over the weekend, which may have some impact on wheat. Colder temperatures will be unfavorable for corn and soybean planting as well. Next week, a system will develop over the south with the promise of widespread moderate to heavy precipitation in the western drought areas. Rains would be beneficial, but only have a small impact on the outstanding drought.

SUSTAINED COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system moving through this week has brought bursts of precipitation and some areas of heavy snow to the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. Snow continues Friday but it will dry out over the weekend. The next system moves through for the back half of next week with scattered showers again. Temperatures are well below normal and likely remain there for the rest of the month, which is unfavorable for fieldwork and planting. It will still be warm enough to continue melting the remaining snowpack but be slow enough to reduce the impact of flooding, which is becoming a major issue in the Red River Valley.

WETTER CONDITIONS IN THE DELTA

A front is moving through the Delta with widespread precipitation Friday and more is expected next week. Many areas of the region are wet, limiting spring planting. Areas that have been able to plant will find good conditions for germination and early growth, though temperatures will be on the cooler end of normal through the end of the month.

DRYING OUT IN BRAZIL

A cold front brought some good rainfall to many areas in Brazil this week, but the pattern will be drier moving forward. The region is more dependent on systems moving through with wet season showers diminishing. But those are going to be in short supply going into May. One small disturbance will bring limited showers to southern areas next week.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Outside of a few showers at times, it will be drier across Argentina for the next couple of weeks. Overall, conditions are good for harvesting a damaged corn and soybean crop. Soil moisture is still sub-optimal for winter wheat planting and a drier stretch will not be helpful once planting starts at the end of the month. More rainfall is needed.

GOOD GROWING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF EUROPE

A few systems brought widespread showers to Europe this week, outside of Spain which remains in drought. Another system will bring showers to the continent over the weekend and into next week, which will bring a brief shot of showers to Spain, but will be very little help in reducing drought. Conditions for winter and spring crops are mostly favorable, but Spain continues to be too dry.

FAVORABLE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE BLACK SEA

A system is drifting through the Black Sea region with widespread precipitation through the weekend. More showers are expected with another system next week. Overall, conditions continue to be mostly favorable for winter wheat development and corn planting.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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