Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Slow snowmelt in the Northern Plains, cold air pouring into the Corn Belt, potential for more rain in the southwestern Plains, and eventual dryness in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MIDWEST TURNING COLDER

A system is moving through the Midwest with several rounds of showers through the weekend, including potential for more snow. Another burst of cold air will move through as well, which is more likely to lead to widespread frosts and freezes that could be troublesome for winter wheat, and be unfavorable for corn and soybean planting. The cold should stick around through the end of April. The active pattern continues next week with several more days of rain chances.

INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system moves through the Central and Southern Plains the next couple of days with a few bursts of showers, but little for the southwestern drought areas. Some snow is not out of the question in the northwest as colder air fills in behind the system throughout the week. Additional frosts may be more widespread over the weekend, which may have some impact on wheat. Colder temperatures will be unfavorable for corn and soybean planting. Next week, the pattern remains active and models are producing plenty of rain chances in the drought areas, but the potential for precipitation there is questionable, and more likely farther east.

SUSTAINED COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system moving through the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies continues to bring snow to the region. Temperatures are well-below normal and likely to remain there for the rest of the month, which is unfavorable for fieldwork and planting. It will still be warm enough to continue melting the remaining snowpack, but be slow enough to reduce the impact of flooding, which is becoming a major issue in the Red River Valley.

WETTER CONDITIONS IN THE DELTA

A front moving through the Delta will produce widespread precipitation Thursday and Friday and more is expected next week. Many areas of the region are wet, limiting spring planting. Some areas that have been able to plant will find good conditions for germination and early growth, though temperatures will be on the cooler end of normal.

DRYING OUT IN BRAZIL

A cold front continues in northern Brazil over the next couple of days. After some good rainfall in many areas, drier conditions look likely afterward. The region is more dependent on systems moving through with wet season showers diminishing. But those are going to be in short supply going into May.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Outside of a few showers at times, it will be drier across Argentina for the next couple of weeks. Overall, conditions are good for harvesting a damaged corn and soybean crop. Soil moisture is still sub-optimal for winter wheat planting and a drier stretch will not be helpful once planting starts at the end of the month. More rainfall is needed.

GOOD GROWING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF EUROPE

A system continues to travel westward through Europe with spotty showers for northern areas over the next couple of days. A system will bring showers to the continent over the weekend and into next week, which may produce more showers across the south, including Spain. Conditions for winter and spring crops are mostly favorable, but Spain continues to be too dry.

FAVORABLE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE BLACK SEA

A system is drifting through the Black Sea region with widespread precipitation through the weekend. More showers are expected with another system next week. Overall, conditions continue to be mostly favorable for winter wheat development and corn planting.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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