Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An active pattern starting back up in the U.S., snowmelt in the Northern Plains, and rains in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

ACTIVE PATTERN BACK INTO MIDWEST

Dryness and above-normal temperatures in the Midwest over the last several days have been favorable for spring fieldwork. Snowpack in the north is essentially gone. A system will bring a few waves of showers through the region through Monday, which may be cold enough for some areas of snow as well. A burst of colder air will move through behind the system, stalling progress on fieldwork and planting. Temperatures will be more on a seesaw, rising again next week, but likely falling again behind the next system later next week that is also likely to bring more rain and may again be cold enough for some snow.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Isolated to scattered showers will move through the Central and Southern Plains Friday and Saturday, mostly across the north. Otherwise, dry conditions remain a concern for winter wheat. The system continues to bring some breezy winds, which is unfavorable for all locations. A system will move into the region in the middle of next week with more chances for showers.

COLDER TEMPERATURES BACK IN NORTHERN PLAINS, CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Recent above-normal temperatures have been melting the snowpack in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies significantly, starting the flooding process. Though cooler temperatures will move through over the next few days and should remain near to below normal through next week, the melting should continue. Cooler temperatures come with chances for showers through Saturday, including a burst of snow in Montana and potential for a couple of spots elsewhere to pick up a brief little bit of snow as well.

MIXED CONDITIONS IN DELTA

Another front moves through the Delta on Saturday with more widespread rain. Many areas are fairly wet from recent rainfall, limiting fieldwork and planting. Precipitation is becoming less frequent, but still steady through the rest of April, which may cause some areas that are too wet, while others will find the proper conditions to get out into the field.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL BRAZIL

Another system will increase showers across Brazil through the weekend. Another is likely to move through next week as well. Overall, systems are providing adequate and timely moisture for developing safrinha corn, though wet season showers are diminishing. This pattern will need to be maintained for the late-planted crop.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Another system should go through Argentina early next week with some spotty showers. Soil moisture has improved recently, but crop conditions are still poor due to heat and drought over the summer. Systems had been coming at a more frequent pace but will likely slow down next week. Soil moisture is still relatively low despite recent rains and more will be needed by the end of the month for winter wheat planting.

GOOD GROWING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF EUROPE

A couple of systems have been bringing showers to Europe this week. Italy has seen improved rain, but Spain is missing out on most of it. Showers will be sagging south into the Mediterranean next week. Most areas have favorable weather conditions.

FAVORABLE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE BLACK SEA

Periods of showers continue to move across the Black Sea region through the weekend, and across Ukraine into next week. Overall, growing conditions are mostly favorable across the region. Some areas may be too wet and cool to plant corn, however.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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